Sweden’s general election enters its final day on Sunday, with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson seeking a renewed mandate for his centre-right coalition while campaigning to include the Sweden Democrats in government for the first time. Polls show a tight race between the centre-left bloc and the right-wing coalition, with the outcome hinging on voter turnout and last-minute shifts.
The election follows a campaign dominated by debates over immigration, crime, and welfare, with both blocs framing their priorities as essential to Sweden’s future. Over 8 million Swedes are eligible to vote for the 349-seat parliament, the Riksdag, which will subsequently elect the next prime minister.
Kristersson’s push for a majority government
Kristersson, leader of the Moderate Party, has led Sweden since 2022 in a minority government supported externally by the Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigration party with far-right origins. His coalition has implemented stricter immigration policies, including abolishing permanent residency for asylum seekers and increasing expulsions. Crime policies have also been a focal point, with measures such as expanded police powers and stiffer sentencing introduced.
In the lead-up to the election, Kristersson has pledged to form a majority government if re-elected, which would require formal inclusion of the Sweden Democrats in his cabinet. This would mark the first time the party holds ministerial posts, a shift from its previous role as an external supporter. Kristersson has defended this decision as a pragmatic move to address what he describes as Sweden’s systemic challenges.
Centre-left opposition challenges the status quo
The centre-left bloc, led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and the Social Democrats, has framed the election as a choice between continuing the current government’s policies or restoring stability and welfare protections. Their campaign has emphasized support for struggling households, bolstering the welfare state, and addressing social inequality.
Andersson, who served as prime minister from 2021 to 2022, has argued that the centre-right’s focus on immigration and crime has overshadowed broader policy debates. The Social Democrats remain Sweden’s largest party, despite recent polling showing a narrowing gap between the blocs.
Key policy shifts under Kristersson’s government
Since taking office, Kristersson’s government has enacted several notable policy changes:
- Immigration: Reduced asylum seeker numbers to a 40-year low and increased expulsions of foreign nationals convicted of crimes.
- Crime: Expanded police powers and introduced stiffer sentencing for violent offenders, though a proposed bill to detain 13-year-olds was revised to apply to those aged 14 and older due to legal constraints.
- Economic focus: Pledged continued support for households facing rising living costs, though critics argue welfare protections have weakened under the current government.
Polls and voter sentiment
Recent polling has shown the centre-left bloc holding a narrow lead, with an Indikator Opinion poll (Sept. 2–10) placing the centre-left at 50.8% and the right-wing coalition at 47.6%. However, analysts note that the race remains volatile, with undecided voters and turnout likely to play decisive roles. Some pensioners, like Kurt Flodin, 79, have expressed support for Kristersson’s focus on crime and immigration, while others, such as theatre worker Jenny Larsson, 54, prioritize welfare and economic stability.
The Sweden Democrats’ evolving role
The Sweden Democrats, once considered a political outcast, have gradually moved toward the mainstream over the past decade. The party entered parliament in 2010 and became Sweden’s second-largest party by 2022, when it agreed to support Kristersson’s minority government. Its influence has grown significantly, particularly in shaping immigration and crime policies.
If the right-wing coalition wins re-election, the Sweden Democrats are expected to gain ministerial positions, a development that has sparked debate over the party’s normalization and its potential impact on Sweden’s political landscape. Critics argue that including the Sweden Democrats in government could further radicalize policy, while supporters contend that the party’s inclusion reflects its growing electoral legitimacy.
What’s at stake for Sweden and Europe
Sweden’s election carries implications beyond its borders, particularly as the country recently joined NATO after decades of military non-alignment. The outcome could influence Europe’s broader political trajectory, especially amid a rise in right-wing populism across the continent. Analysts suggest that Sweden’s decision on whether to embrace the far-right in government may set a precedent for other nations grappling with similar political shifts.
Voting begins on Sunday, with results expected later in the evening. The new parliament will convene to elect a prime minister, with the potential for protracted negotiations if no bloc secures a clear majority.