Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has taken a 5-point lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton in a new poll, reversing a prior deficit as the race enters its final stretch ahead of the November election.
A survey conducted by SoCal Strategies between September 12 and 13 among 649 likely voters found Talarico at 50% support, compared to Paxton’s 45%. This marks a shift from the pollster’s June survey, which had Paxton leading 49% to 47%. The poll’s margin of error was not disclosed.
Talarico’s lead is driven by gains among Hispanic voters (38%, up from 10% in June), independent voters (45%, up from 10%), and voters aged 18–29 (46%). Paxton maintains advantages among white voters (56% to 39%), voters aged 45–64 (49% to 46%), and voters over 65 (51% to 44%).
Republican voters appear more undecided than Democrats, with 6% of 2024 Trump voters currently uncommitted compared to 1% of Harris voters, according to the poll. The survey noted that Paxton would need to consolidate nearly all undecided Republican voters to remain competitive.
Talarico Intensifies Outreach to Black Voters in Houston
On Sunday, Talarico held a rally at Wheeler Avenue Baptist Church in Houston’s Third Ward, a predominantly Black neighborhood, to mobilize voters ahead of the election. The event drew several hundred attendees, with Talarico emphasizing affordability and unity in his pitch.
Talarico acknowledged the importance of Black voters, who represent one of Texas’s most reliable Democratic voting blocs. He stated, “That work of representing Black Texans doesn’t start the day after Election Day, it starts now.” The rally followed criticism from some Black leaders during a July event, where an activist accused Talarico of dismissing Black Texans. However, attendees at Sunday’s rally indicated a more positive reception, with multiple voters who had supported primary opponent Jasmine Crockett expressing openness to Talarico.
Crockett, who won 80% of Black voters in the primary, has not yet endorsed Talarico in the general election. Her campaign has not responded to requests for comment on her current stance.
Campaign Responses and Election Dynamics
Neither the Talarico nor Paxton campaigns provided immediate comment when contacted by Newsweek outside regular working hours. The race reflects broader shifts in Texas, a state long considered a Republican stronghold, where recent elections have seen increased competitiveness due to changing demographics and political dynamics.
Polls indicate that independent and younger voters are trending toward Talarico, while older and white voters remain more aligned with Paxton. The tightening race suggests that turnout and mobilization efforts in key demographics could determine the outcome in November.