Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring a disturbance in the central Atlantic that has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. The system, located 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves west.
Forecasters expect the disturbance to enter an area more conducive to gradual development later this week, though strong winds currently hinder immediate organization. The NHC stated the system is unlikely to develop over the next 48 hours.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has been historically quiet this year. As of September 14, no hurricanes have formed, setting a modern record for the latest date without at least one hurricane. The season has produced five tropical storms, including Tropical Storm Edouard, which formed on August 31.
Meteorologists attribute the suppressed activity to El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific. El Niño increases wind shear in the Atlantic, which disrupts storm formation. Forecasts indicate El Niño will strengthen through the end of the year, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming "very strong" in fall and winter.
While the Atlantic has seen limited activity, the Pacific has experienced more storms due to El Niño’s influence. At least two systems are being monitored in the Pacific, including Tropical Storm Norbert, which formed on September 10 over 1,000 miles east of Hawaii.
The NHC continues to track the Atlantic disturbance and other potential systems as the peak of hurricane season approaches.