Ukrainian military intelligence has warned that Russia plans to conduct final tests of a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 kilometers by the end of 2024, according to a senior defense official. The announcement follows assessments by analysts that the weapon may incorporate advanced maneuverability features designed to evade interception systems already stretched by prolonged conflict.
Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) deputy head Vadym Skibitskyi stated at a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Interparliamentary Council that Moscow is preparing for the missile’s deployment, with potential live-fire testing in the coming months. The missile’s reported specifications suggest it could strike targets hundreds of miles beyond Ukraine’s current defensive coverage, including deep into rear areas.
Defense experts have highlighted two primary concerns regarding the missile’s capabilities. Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that if the missile incorporates terminal maneuverability—meaning it can adjust its flight path unpredictably during its final approach—it would significantly complicate interception efforts. "This means terminal maneuvers that weave a little bit so that the defender doesn't quite know where it's going or what trajectory it will have," Karako explained.
Alternatively, Karako suggested Russia may have developed a more cost-effective or scalable production method for the missile, potentially enabling larger-scale deployment. "Another possibility is that they just figured out a way to make some kind of 800-kilometer missile more cheaply or in large numbers," he added.
The development aligns with a broader global trend toward precision-guided munitions, with Karako noting that modern military arsenals increasingly prioritize terminal guidance for gravity bombs and other unguided weapons. "Everyone is going for increased maneuverability," he said. "Just about every gravity bomb that we have has some kind of terminal guidance for precision."
While the exact specifications and deployment timeline remain unverified, Ukrainian officials and independent analysts agree that the missile’s introduction could further strain Ukraine’s air defense systems, which have already intercepted thousands of Russian missiles and drones since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. The potential for the new missile to require more sophisticated interceptors—such as those provided by Western allies—raises questions about future military aid and defensive capabilities.
No independent confirmation of the missile’s existence or specifications has been provided by Russian authorities. Moscow has not publicly commented on the reported tests or the missile’s development. The Kremlin has previously framed its military modernization efforts as responses to perceived threats from NATO and Ukraine, though these claims have not been independently verified.