The Trump administration has proposed a new rule that would exclude noncitizens from the population count used to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, marking a significant shift in how congressional representation is determined. The Census Bureau announced the rule change on September 9, with a public comment period open until October 13. The proposal would count citizens and green card holders but exclude undocumented immigrants and many temporary visa holders, citing a lack of "tie and allegiance" to the country as the rationale for the change.
The administration argues the current system unfairly benefits states with larger noncitizen populations by inflating their congressional representation. The rule is expected to face legal challenges, with a final version likely to be published in the coming months. The Census Bureau has not yet specified a timeline for implementation, but the change would first apply to the 2030 census.
Who supports the proposal?
Republicans, including Rep. Andrew Clyde, R-Ga., have introduced legislation—the Make Apportionment Great Again (MAGA) Act—that would codify this approach into law. The bill would require states to use existing records to reapportion House seats by 2027, without conducting a new census. Clyde’s proposal also includes a new question on the 2030 census asking respondents to specify their citizenship status, distinguishing between U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, and undocumented immigrants.
Proponents of the change argue it would restore fairness to the apportionment process, which they claim has been distorted by the inclusion of noncitizens. A 2024 report by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) suggested that immigrants—both legal and illegal—resulted in a "net increase" of 14 seats for Democrat-leaning states, while Republican states lost 10 seats they would have otherwise held. The report’s findings have been cited by supporters as evidence of systemic bias in the current system.
Who opposes the proposal?
Critics, including Democrats and immigration advocacy groups, argue the change would disproportionately reduce representation for states with large immigrant populations, many of which are also home to significant numbers of U.S. citizens who are racial or ethnic minorities. The U.S. Census Bureau has historically counted all residents, regardless of citizenship status, as part of its constitutional mandate to enumerate the population. The bureau has not yet publicly commented on the proposed rule change.
Opponents also warn that the exclusion of noncitizens could lead to legal challenges under the 14th Amendment, which requires congressional apportionment to be based on the "whole number of persons" in each state. The amendment does not explicitly mention citizenship, leaving room for interpretation. Legal experts have noted that the Supreme Court has not directly addressed whether noncitizens must be included in apportionment counts.
What are the potential consequences?
The proposed rule change could have far-reaching political implications, particularly in states with high immigrant populations such as California, New York, Florida, and New Jersey. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, immigrants—both citizens and noncitizens—make up one-fifth of the population in these states. If noncitizens are excluded, these states could lose seats in the House, shifting political power toward states with smaller immigrant populations.
The change could also affect federal funding allocations, as many programs use census data to distribute resources. Critics argue that excluding noncitizens could lead to underrepresentation for communities with large immigrant populations, including Latinx and Asian American communities, which are projected to comprise a majority of the U.S. population by 2045.
Background: How apportionment works
The U.S. Constitution requires a census every 10 years to determine the number of seats each state holds in the House of Representatives. The 435 seats are currently divided based on the total population count, which includes all residents, regardless of citizenship status. This system has been in place since the nation’s founding, with the last major change occurring in 1929, when the number of seats was permanently set at 435.
The proposed rule change would mark the first time in modern history that citizenship status is explicitly considered in the apportionment process. The administration has framed the move as a correction to what it describes as an outdated and unfair system, while opponents argue it undermines the principle of equal representation for all residents.
Next steps
The public comment period for the proposed rule change remains open until October 13. After reviewing feedback, the Census Bureau will finalize the rule, likely triggering legal challenges from states, advocacy groups, or civil rights organizations. The MAGA Act, if passed by Congress, would face its own set of legal hurdles, including potential constitutional challenges. The outcome of these efforts could reshape the political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.