The Cook Political Report has moved the New Hampshire Senate race from Lean Democratic to Toss Up as the contest between Republican John Sununu and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas intensifies ahead of the November general election.
The shift reflects tightening polling numbers, with recent surveys showing a highly competitive race. A September co/efficient poll found both candidates tied at 46 percent, while an University of New Hampshire (UNH) survey in late August showed Sununu at 45 percent and Pappas at 43 percent. Earlier polling from Saint Anselm College had Pappas leading Sununu 48 percent to 41 percent.
National Republican groups have significantly outspent Democratic counterparts in the state, with a $20 million advantage in ad spending. Sununu’s allies have spent nearly twice as much as pro-Pappas groups, according to the Cook Political Report.
The race is unfolding amid broader midterm dynamics, where the president’s party typically loses seats. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. In the 2024 presidential election, New Hampshire was narrowly won by Vice President Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by less than 3 percent.
Both campaigns have been contacted for comment.