Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico has seen his polling prospects improve in four separate election trackers, with probabilities of victory ranging from 55% to 58% as of late September. The latest projections place him ahead of Republican incumbent Ken Paxton, who holds between 42% and 45% in the same models.
Talarico, a state representative and former middle school teacher, is challenging Paxton—a figure central to recent legal controversies—in a race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas in over 30 years, making the contest one of the most closely watched in the 2024 cycle.
Talarico’s rising odds follow months of incremental gains. Decision Desk HQ’s model, which began tracking the race on May 28, initially gave Talarico a 43% chance of winning. His probability dipped to 40% in June and July before climbing steadily, reaching 50% on August 7 and 55% by August 28. The model briefly dipped to 52% on September 9 before rebounding to 55% the following day.
Other trackers reflect similar trends. The Economist gives Talarico a 58% chance, while Polymarket’s prediction market places his odds at 56%. VoteHub’s Senate forecast aligns with Decision Desk HQ at 55%. These figures are based on statistical models, historical data, and market-driven contracts tied to the election outcome.
Resurfaced remarks fuel debate
A 2024 interview in which Talarico described the U.S. as "backsliding" on democracy has resurfaced amid the tightening race. Speaking on June 2, 2024, during an appearance on The Weekend Show with Anthony Davis on the MeidasTouch Network, Talarico stated:
"We haven’t lived up to the promise of democracy. And of course, some countries are farther along than others, and sadly, here in America, where that experiment started, we are backsliding."
He added that Americans should look to Western Europe for "inspiration" on strengthening democratic institutions. The remarks drew attention on social media, including a response from Elon Musk, who replied with a single word: "No."
Talarico’s campaign defended his comments, asserting in a statement to Fox News Digital that he believes "America is the greatest country in the world" and that his remarks were intended to advocate for "a more perfect union."
Race context and stakes
The Texas Senate seat is currently held by Republicans, who control the chamber with a 53-47 majority. Democrats would need to defend all their seats and flip four Republican-held seats to regain control. A Talarico victory would mark a historic shift in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.
Both campaigns have not responded to requests for comment from Newsweek, according to the outlet’s report.
Background: The candidates
- James Talarico (D): A former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary to secure the nomination. He is running against Paxton in the general election.
- Ken Paxton (R): The Texas Attorney General, Paxton defeated John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff. His tenure has been marked by legal challenges, including a 2023 impeachment trial in which the Texas House voted to impeach him on charges including bribery and abuse of office. A state Senate trial acquitted him on all counts in August 2023.
The general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.