A new poll from Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. shows Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico holding a 3-point lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton, 46% to 43%, in Texas’ U.S. Senate race. The survey, conducted between September 8–10, includes responses from 625 registered Texas voters and carries a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
The race remains highly competitive with just over a month remaining until the November 3 general election, according to the poll released on September 15. While Talarico leads overall, the data reveals sharp demographic divides that could shape the outcome.
Regional Support
Talarico maintains a double-digit lead in Central and South Texas, as well as a narrow advantage in the Houston metro area. The two candidates are tied at 45% in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, while Paxton holds double-digit leads in East and West Texas.
Gender and Age Divides
Men favor Paxton by 51% to 39%, but women back Talarico by 52% to 36%. Age groups show a more nuanced split:
- Voters 18–34 support Talarico 51% to 37%.
- Voters 50–64 lean toward Talarico 49% to 41%.
- Voters over 65 are nearly tied, with Paxton holding a 1-point lead.
- Only voters 35–49 favor Paxton, 47% to 42%.
Racial and Ethnic Breakdown
Paxton leads among white voters at 54%, while Talarico holds strong support from Black voters at 85% and Hispanic voters at 54%.
Campaign Context
The poll arrives as both campaigns intensify outreach to undecided and independent voters. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, and Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber. Democrats see this race as a potential pickup opportunity in a state that backed Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024.
Political analysts note that while Talarico has gained momentum in recent polls, the race remains a toss-up given the tight margin and competitive landscape. Both sides have poured significant resources into the contest, with millions spent on advertising and voter mobilization in the final stretch.