Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Thursday warned that Russia is planning hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine, including NATO members on its eastern flank.
Tusk stated that Moscow intends to frame any such attacks as accidental in order to undermine NATO’s collective defense under Article 5, which deems an attack on one member an attack on all. He emphasized that Poland will not cede any territory in response to perceived threats.
The warnings follow recent Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace, including near Polish borders, and come as Western intelligence agencies report heightened preparations for escalation. Tusk did not specify which agencies provided the intelligence but noted coordination with NATO, Ukraine, and U.S. sources.
Poland’s Stance: No Concessions on Sovereignty
In a video statement posted to X (formerly Twitter), Tusk reaffirmed Poland’s refusal to surrender territory, declaring: ‘We will not yield a single inch of territory.’ His remarks directly countered a post by Polish President Karol Nawrocki, who had written: ‘We may lose territory, but we will never lose our soul.’ Tusk urged Nawrocki to delete the post, calling it inconsistent with Poland’s official position.
Poland has closed airspace and scrambled fighter jets in response to recent Russian drone activity near its borders, including a high-speed jet-powered drone strike in western Ukraine close to Poland. A separate incident involved a Russian drone hitting a railway station near the border, narrowly missing Western dignitaries, including former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Russia’s Alleged Strategy: Hybrid Warfare and NATO Division
Tusk described Russia’s approach as a ‘hybrid’ strategy designed to ‘paralyze or weaken NATO’s willingness to respond collectively’ under Article 5. He cited jet-powered drones, which fly higher and faster, as a growing threat to air defenses.
The Polish prime minister also highlighted political shifts in Europe, including the rise of pro-Russia political parties in France and Germany, which he argued could undermine NATO’s commitment to Ukraine. He questioned whether Western European members fully grasp the risks faced by frontline states like Poland.
NATO and U.S. Responses: Reinforcements and Uncertainty
Tusk’s warnings coincided with reports that U.S. President Donald Trump announced progress toward establishing a permanent U.S. Army base in Poland, a move Trump described as a ‘historic step’ for the alliance. The base’s location was not disclosed.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte separately emphasized the need for the UK to meet defense spending targets, though no direct link to Tusk’s warnings was made. Meanwhile, NATO chief Mark Rutte has previously stressed the alliance’s unity, though Tusk’s remarks suggest internal divisions over long-term strategy.
Broader Context: Escalating Tensions and Intelligence Assessments
The warnings follow months of heightened Russian hybrid activity, including drone incursions, sabotage operations, and cyberattacks targeting Poland and other NATO members. Intelligence assessments cited by Tusk suggest Russia is preparing for a broader conflict, though he clarified there is ‘nothing to indicate an imminent invasion.’
Poland, a key transit hub for Western military aid to Ukraine, has accused Russia of ‘sabotage’ since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The country’s proximity to Ukraine and Russia makes it a primary target for hybrid warfare, according to analysts.
Tusk is scheduled to meet with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Ukraine on Friday, amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to maintain regional cohesion.