A new Emerson College Polling survey shows Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton leading Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall by 2 percentage points in the Kansas Senate race. The poll, conducted September 15-16 among 750 likely voters, found Hamilton at 45%, Marshall at 43%, and Libertarian candidate David Graham at 4%, with a 3.6% margin of error.
The survey marks the first independent poll this election cycle to show Hamilton ahead in a race that has drawn national attention. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and Republicans had expected a stronger advantage in the state, which voted for Donald Trump by over 15 points in 2020.
Recent Polling Fluctuations
The Emerson College results contrast with an earlier co/efficient poll (September 8-10), which had Marshall leading 49% to 44% among 915 likely voters, with a 3.22% margin of error. Another survey by Global Strategy Group (August 12-16) showed Hamilton narrowly ahead 44% to 43%, while a Public Policy Polling poll (August 7-8) had Marshall leading 46% to 45%. All polls fall within their respective margins of error, indicating a highly competitive race.
Campaign Activity and Context
Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to campaign in Olathe, Kansas, on Monday in support of Marshall, who is seeking a second term. Hamilton, the founder of the country’s largest United Methodist Church, is running to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Kansas in 92 years.
Both campaigns have been approached for comment, but no immediate responses have been reported. Political analysts note that Hamilton’s appeal among independent voters—where he leads by 15 points, according to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball—has contributed to the race’s tightening margins. The Emerson College survey suggests this election could be closer than many Republicans anticipated, though Marshall remains the favorite in prediction markets.
The outcome of the race could have implications for control of the U.S. Senate, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority. Kansas’ Senate contest is one of several competitive races in traditionally red states this cycle.