A new Texas Pulse poll released Sept. 17 shows Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 6 percentage points in the final stretch of the Texas Senate race. The poll, conducted Sept. 8–11 among 614 likely voters, found Talarico at 49% to Paxton’s 43%, a margin outside the poll’s 4.3-point margin of error.
The survey also revealed shifting voter sentiment since July. Independent voters now favor Talarico by 40 points (64%-24%), up from a 23-point lead (53%-30%) in the previous poll. Paxton’s favorability rating remains negative at 38% favorable to 55% unfavorable, while Talarico’s favorability improved to 50% favorable and 39% unfavorable.
Voter confidence in Talarico’s potential victory has also risen, with 48% of respondents predicting he will win compared to 45% for Paxton. The poll noted a significant drop in voter uncertainty about Talarico, with only 10% of voters lacking an opinion about him, down from 25% in June.
Party defections and demographic shifts
ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren attributed Paxton’s struggles in part to defectors within his own party, noting that while nearly all Democrats support Talarico, just under 9 in 10 Republicans back Paxton. The poll’s findings come as Talarico intensifies efforts to secure support from Black voters, a key constituency in Texas politics.
Talarico’s outreach to Black voters follows criticism from Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX), who questioned his level of support within the community during their contentious Democratic primary. Crockett stated she did not believe there was strong enthusiasm for Talarico among Black voters this cycle.
Election timeline and polling context
With Election Day on Nov. 3, the latest poll reflects a tightening race in the final month. Previous September surveys have shown fluctuating leads, with Talarico maintaining a consistent but narrowing advantage. The Texas Pulse poll is the latest in a series of mid-September measurements, providing a snapshot of voter preferences as campaigning intensifies.
The race remains highly competitive, with both candidates seeking to solidify key voting blocs ahead of the election. Polling data suggests that independent and undecided voters could play a decisive role in determining the outcome.