A new NBC News poll released ahead of the midterm elections reveals that 43% of registered voters say their congressional vote is driven by opposition to President Donald Trump—the highest level recorded in NBC News polling over the past three decades. The survey, conducted between September 11-15 among 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, also indicates that 27% of voters view their vote as a show of support for Trump.
The poll underscores significant concerns about the economy, with 55% of respondents stating that Trump’s policies have hurt the economy, while 26% say they have helped and 18% believe they have made little difference. This marks a shift from the 2018 midterms, when 41% of voters said Trump’s policies had helped the economy compared to 26% who said they had hurt it. Additionally, 57% of voters report they are less likely to support a candidate who backs the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which voters increasingly link to rising gas prices and living costs.
Voters’ Priorities and Partisan Divides
The survey highlights a stark divide in voter priorities. 50% of respondents express greater concern that Republicans will go too far in supporting Trump if they retain control of Congress, while 42% are more worried that Democrats will obstruct the president if they gain a majority. Among independents, 45% lean toward concern over Republicans’ alignment with Trump, compared to 30% who fear Democratic obstruction.
The poll also reflects broader dissatisfaction with Trump’s job performance, with 56% of voters disapproving of his performance as president. This includes overwhelming majorities of Democrats and independents, as well as 16% of Republicans. Only 25% of voters strongly approve of Trump’s performance, the second-lowest mark recorded in NBC News polling during his terms.
Republican and Democratic Responses
Republicans on the campaign trail are framing the election as a referendum on Democratic policies, arguing that their opponents are too extreme to trust with congressional majorities. Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates countered that Trump’s influence has made the election a historic referendum on his leadership. “Donald Trump has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level,” Horwitt stated. “The problem for Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November is that he has also made history in the highest share of voters who say their vote is in opposition to Trump.”
The White House has pushed back on the poll’s findings, asserting that the data does not capture the full impact of Trump’s agenda. A spokesperson stated that Trump has “accomplished more for the American people than any other president in history,” citing efforts to create jobs, reduce inflation, and improve housing affordability. The administration argued that Trump’s policies are still taking effect and that progress is ongoing both domestically and internationally.
Economic Policies Under Scrutiny
The poll suggests that some of Trump’s signature economic policies are facing skepticism. While Republicans have touted the 2025 “big, beautiful bill”, which combined tax cuts and spending measures, the survey indicates that 42% of voters remain unconvinced of its benefits. The legislation, enacted during Trump’s presidency, has become a focal point in the midterm debates, with critics arguing it has failed to deliver the promised economic boost.
Historical Context and Midterm Dynamics
The NBC News poll reflects broader trends in midterm elections, where voter sentiment often shifts against the sitting president’s party. The data aligns with historical patterns, though the intensity of opposition to Trump appears unprecedented in recent decades. Analysts note that the geographic advantages of Republicans may mitigate some of the challenges posed by the current political environment, even as the issue landscape tilts in favor of Democrats.
The survey’s findings come as both parties intensify their messaging ahead of the November elections, with Trump’s influence looming large over the campaign trail. The results underscore the high stakes of the midterms, where economic concerns, foreign policy, and voter sentiment toward the president will likely shape the outcome.