Democratic State Representative James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, according to a new poll, while Republican Governor Greg Abbott maintains a wider advantage over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the gubernatorial contest. The latest NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll shows Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Abbott leads Hinojosa 48% to 41%, also within the margin of error.
Prediction markets and election forecasters have recently shifted their assessments of the Senate race. Kalshi gives Talarico a 59% chance of winning compared to Paxton’s 41%, while Polymarket places Talarico at 60% and Paxton at 41%. Fox News’ Power Rankings moved the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up,” and The Cook Political Report classified it as a “Toss-Up.” Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model now categorizes Texas as “Lean Democrat,” citing Paxton’s scandals and Talarico’s fundraising as key factors.
The gubernatorial race remains more favorable to Abbott, though Hinojosa leads among Latino voters. The NBC5 poll found Hinojosa leading Abbott 52% to 39% among Hispanic likely voters, while Talarico leads Paxton 54% to 36% in the same demographic. Latino voters, who make up about a third of Texas’ electorate, have shown increased support for Democrats compared to 2024, when Donald Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in the state.
The NBC5/Telemundo poll surveyed 401 Hispanic likely voters from September 8–12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. via live telephone interviews.
Both races remain highly competitive, with economic issues and immigration cited as key drivers of voter decision-making. Tens of millions of dollars in advertising from Republican groups have recently flooded the state, potentially influencing the final outcome.
Campaign Responses
Neither campaign has publicly commented on the latest polling or prediction market shifts. Newsweek reached out to both the Talarico and Paxton campaigns for comment but did not receive responses outside of regular working hours.