National polling released in mid-September shows Democrats holding a significant advantage over Republicans in the lead-up to the November midterm elections. The latest surveys indicate a shifting political landscape, with economic concerns and voter dissatisfaction shaping the race.
Democrats extend polling lead as midterms approach
Quantus Insights’ congressional polling released in mid-September found Democrats leading Republicans by 8.6 points among likely voters, marking the widest advantage of the election cycle. Emerson and Marquette surveys also showed a clear Democratic edge, with margins of 8 to 13 points among likely voters. The national generic-ballot polls measure voter preference for Congress rather than named candidates, offering a broad view of the political environment ahead of the elections.
NBC News polling conducted from September 11 to 15 similarly showed Democrats leading Republicans by 5 points on the generic congressional ballot. The RealClearPolitics average placed the Democratic lead at several percentage points below that figure. Aggregated data from RealClearPolitics as of September 20 gave Democrats an 8.5-point lead (50.5% to 42%) in the generic congressional vote across polls conducted from September 2 to 20.
Economic trust shifts toward Democrats
A separate NBC News poll released in late September found Democrats narrowly ahead of Republicans on which party voters trust to handle the economy, the first time in nearly nine years that Democrats have held this advantage. The poll showed Democrats leading Republicans 39% to 38% on economic trust, though the margin falls within the poll’s margin of error. Fifty-five percent of respondents said President Trump’s policies had hurt the economy, while 26% said they had helped and 18% saw little effect. Democrats also held a 7-point advantage on controlling inflation (38% to 31%).
President Trump’s approval rating stood at 41%, with 56% disapproving, marking his lowest second-term approval in the NBC News series. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from September 11 to 15 via telephone interviews.
Market-based predictions reflect polling trends
Prediction markets have adjusted to reflect the polling shifts. As of September 22, Kalshi priced a 61% chance of a Democratic sweep of Congress, while Polymarket gave a 65% implied probability to a Democratic sweep. RealClearPolling’s 2026 Generic Congressional Vote average placed Democrats ahead by 8.5 points.
Voter sentiment and turnout considerations
Surveys indicate that voter dissatisfaction with the country’s direction and economic conditions is shaping the political climate. Quantus Insights reported that 60% of likely voters believed the country was on the wrong track. The polling data underscores the importance of turnout in determining the final outcome, as historical midterm trends often favor the party not holding the presidency.
Historical context suggests midterm elections rarely favor the president’s party. Since 1934, the president’s party has lost ground in all but two midterms, including the 2018 and 2022 elections. However, experts caution that polling does not account for unforeseen events or shifts in voter sentiment in the final weeks before an election.
Key races and local factors
While national polling provides a broad view of the political environment, control of Congress will ultimately be determined by local campaigns, district boundaries, and turnout. Competitive House and Senate races may see different dynamics than the national averages suggest, as candidates tailor their messages to regional concerns and voter priorities.
The midterm elections remain six weeks away, leaving room for potential shifts in the political landscape as campaigns intensify and new developments emerge.