California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a statewide state of emergency on Monday, directing state agencies to prepare for a strengthening El Niño that federal forecasters say could reach historic levels during the 2026-27 winter season.
The proclamation, issued via a press release and a statement on X (formerly Twitter), authorizes the mobilization of state resources to address potential severe weather, including repeated heavy rain, strong winds, and mountain snow. Newsom stated in the release that the declaration aims to ensure resident safety, community connectivity, and disaster preparedness ahead of the incoming weather pattern.
Federal forecasters with the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported in September that El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" event during fall and winter. The CPC also noted a historical comparison, stating the current El Niño has the potential to surpass all previous recorded events dating back to 1950. Earlier this month, the agency placed the odds of a historic event between October and December at higher than previous forecasts.
El Niño Overview
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring Pacific climate pattern that influences global weather. Typical effects include stormier conditions across the Southern U.S., drier spells in northern regions, and altered hurricane activity. AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok previously told Newsweek that a southern storm track is expected during El Niño-dominated winters, with areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco particularly vulnerable to more frequent and intense storms in late fall and winter.
The declaration follows historical precedent, as California has faced significant impacts during past strong El Niño events. The 1997-98 El Niño, one of five recorded "super" events, resulted in 17 storm-related deaths in California, $500 million in damages, and global losses estimated at $5.7 trillion in income. Current projections suggest the upcoming event could exceed these impacts, with heightened risks of landslides, flooding, and infrastructure strain due to the state’s topography and urban density.
State and Federal Preparedness Measures
Newsom’s emergency declaration activates state-level coordination, including resource allocation for emergency response, public safety campaigns, and infrastructure assessments. The governor’s office emphasized the need for early preparation, urging residents to stock emergency supplies, secure property, and stay informed through official channels.
Federal agencies, including the CPC and National Weather Service, continue to monitor El Niño’s progression, providing updated forecasts and risk assessments to state and local authorities. While the declaration does not mandate local actions, it signals a coordinated state response to mitigate potential damage.
Potential Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Meteorologists warn that California’s mountainous regions and densely populated coastal areas are particularly susceptible to El Niño’s effects. Heavy snowfall in the Sierra Nevada could disrupt transportation, while intense rainfall in urban centers may overwhelm drainage systems, increasing flood risks. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has highlighted the need for preventive measures, including slope stabilization in landslide-prone areas and emergency shelter preparations.
Residents in high-risk zones, such as Southern California’s burn-scarred hillsides and northern California’s river basins, are advised to review evacuation plans and prepare for extended power outages or road closures. Local governments have begun conducting risk assessments and coordinating with state agencies to address gaps in preparedness.
Historical Context and Scientific Basis
El Niño events occur irregularly, typically every 2 to 7 years, with "very strong" or "super" events classified by sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C above average. The current event is projected to reach 3°C above average, a threshold met only five times in recorded history. Scientists attribute the heightened intensity to climate change, which may amplify El Niño’s effects by increasing atmospheric moisture and storm energy.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has noted that while El Niño does not directly cause extreme weather, it increases the likelihood of such events. The organization’s latest bulletin states that the current pattern is consistent with long-term trends observed in a warming climate, raising concerns about future recurrence of severe events.
Next Steps and Public Guidance
State officials have launched a public awareness campaign, directing residents to resources such as Ready.gov/California for emergency preparedness tips. The governor’s office has also encouraged businesses and schools to review contingency plans, including remote work policies and early closures in anticipation of severe weather.
Forecasters will provide updated seasonal outlooks in the coming weeks, with the CPC’s next report scheduled for October 10. Residents are advised to monitor local weather updates and follow guidance from the National Weather Service as the event approaches.
The emergency declaration remains in effect until rescinded or modified by the governor’s office, with state agencies continuing to assess evolving conditions.