A new Suffolk University Political Research Center poll released Monday shows Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat, leading Republican Mike Rogers by 7 percentage points in the state’s closely watched race. The poll of 500 likely voters—conducted between September 16-19—marks the largest margin for El-Sayed in September polling, with a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points.
The survey found El-Sayed at 47%, Rogers at 40%, while 8% of voters remained undecided and 3% declined to answer. Four other candidates combined for 3% of support. The poll’s director, David Paleologos, highlighted El-Sayed’s strength among independent voters as a key factor in the widening lead. Paleologos noted that dissatisfaction with recent tariffs on Canada and opposition to potential data center developments in Michigan had contributed to the shift among independents compared to 2024.
The partisan divide in the race mirrors Michigan’s 2024 presidential vote. Among voters who backed Donald Trump in 2024, Rogers leads El-Sayed 85% to 5%. Conversely, among Kamala Harris voters, El-Sayed leads 83% to 3%.
Election forecaster Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently shifted Michigan’s Senate race from a toss-up to “Leans Democratic”, citing a broader trend favoring Democrats in midterm races. Sabato attributed the rating changes to “the poor national environment for Republicans.” The Crystal Ball’s update was part of a series of shifts across 10 races nationwide.
Both campaigns have yet to respond to requests for comment from Newsweek.
Key Factors in the Race
Independent voters have emerged as a decisive bloc in this contest. Paleologos pointed to two primary issues influencing their shift toward Democrats: opposition to recent tariffs on Canadian goods and concerns over proposed data center projects in Michigan. The tariffs, implemented in 2024, have drawn criticism for their economic impact, while data centers—often associated with high energy consumption—have faced local opposition over infrastructure and environmental concerns.
The Suffolk poll’s findings align with broader polling trends in Michigan. Since Labor Day, every survey released has shown El-Sayed ahead, though margins have varied. The latest data suggests a consolidation of support for the Democratic candidate among unaffiliated voters, a group that could prove pivotal in the November 5 election.
Forecasting Shifts and National Trends
Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjustment reflects a broader pattern in 2024 midterm forecasting. The forecaster’s team noted that Republican candidates in key races are facing headwinds due to national dissatisfaction with the party’s performance and messaging. While Michigan’s race remains competitive, the shift in ratings underscores the volatility of the Senate landscape six weeks from Election Day.
The race is one of several in battleground states where control of the U.S. Senate may hinge on narrow margins. Michigan’s contest is particularly notable for its reflection of the state’s 2024 presidential vote, where Trump carried the state by a narrow margin.
What’s Next
With six weeks remaining until the midterms, both campaigns are expected to intensify outreach efforts targeting independent and undecided voters. The Suffolk poll’s margin of error suggests the race remains within the realm of statistical fluctuation, but the trend lines favor El-Sayed at this juncture.