A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Wednesday shows registered voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by a 12-point margin in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections. The survey, conducted September 14-15 among 1,280 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, indicates that 39% of respondents approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 53% disapprove—marking the highest share of strong disapproval since 2017.
The poll reveals that voters are more likely to support candidates offering new ideas rather than those with a proven track record, with 45% of voters saying their choice for Congress is a vote against Trump, including four in five Democrats and about half of independents. Meanwhile, about a quarter of voters—including 59% of Republicans and 51% of Trump 2024 voters—say their vote is in support of the president. Approximately one-third of voters report that Trump is not a major factor in their decision, with 41% of those being Republican.
Key Findings on Voter Priorities
The poll highlights that more voters believe Democrats would better address gas prices, the economy, and foreign policy amid rising costs and geopolitical tensions, including the war in Iran. Voter enthusiasm currently favors Democrats, with independents showing growing support for the party as a potential backlash to the party in power builds.
Trump’s Role in the Midterms
Trump has framed the midterms as a referendum on his leadership, stating at a recent convention, “I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot.” However, the poll suggests that many voters are treating the election as a referendum on Trump himself, with a plurality of respondents indicating their vote is driven by opposition to his policies or leadership.
Polling Methodology
The survey was conducted via live caller, text, and online interviews, with results reflecting a snapshot of voter sentiment at the time of polling. The margin of error indicates that the actual preference could vary by up to 3.8 points higher or lower than reported.
Context and Historical Comparisons
While the poll shows declining support for Republicans, political analysts caution that polling data does not always predict actual voter turnout, particularly in midterm elections where motivation and local dynamics play significant roles. Some voters may feel less motivated to participate in traditionally uncompetitive races, which could impact the overall outcome.
Ongoing Developments
The poll’s findings come amid broader discussions about the 2026 midterms, with some analysts noting that voter sentiment could shift as campaigns intensify and new issues emerge. The role of independent voters, who currently lean toward Democrats, remains a critical factor in determining the final results.