Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman has narrowed the polling deficit against incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul to 9 points, according to a Siena College survey conducted Sept. 11-17. The poll, released Wednesday, shows Hochul at 50% support among likely voters, while Blakeman stands at 41%.
The latest figures represent a 1-point improvement for Blakeman since August, when Hochul led 49% to 39%. The shift falls within the poll’s margin of error of approximately 4 percentage points, meaning the change may not reflect a definitive trend. Hochul’s lead remains narrower than the 17-point advantage she held over Republican challenger Lee Zeldin at the same juncture in the 2022 election, when she ultimately won by 6 points.
Blakeman’s Campaign Claims Momentum
Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, has framed the tightening race as evidence of growing voter interest in his policy proposals. In a statement, he argued that Hochul’s support is eroding as New Yorkers learn more about his plans to cut income taxes by historic margins and slash electric bills in half. The Republican nominee also highlighted his performance among key demographics, noting he leads Hochul 44% to 39% among independent voters and holds an 88% to 8% advantage with Republicans. Hochul, meanwhile, leads among Democrats 81% to 11%.
Hochul’s Standing and Public Sentiment
Hochul’s job approval rating remains below the majority threshold, with 48% approving and 47% disapproving. Her favorability rating is similarly split, with 48% viewing her positively and 48% unfavorably. The poll also found that only 38% of New Yorkers believe the state is on the right track, while 49% say it is heading in the wrong direction. Comparatively, 28% of respondents said the U.S. as a whole is on the right track, with 66% disagreeing.
Name Recognition Challenges for Blakeman
Despite his gains, Blakeman faces a name recognition gap, with 35% of voters viewing him favorably and 34% unfavorably. A significant portion—31% of respondents—either do not know him or lack sufficient information to form an opinion, with just 41 days remaining until the Nov. 3 election.
AG Race: James’ Lead Slips Against Komatireddy
In a separate Siena College poll, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James maintains a 13-point lead over Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy, at 52% to 39%. However, James’ advantage has shrunk by 5 points since August, though the change remains within the poll’s margin of error. Komatireddy, a former federal prosecutor and Harvard Law graduate, benefits from a low-profile campaign, with two-thirds of likely voters either unaware of her or lacking enough information to evaluate her candidacy.
Historical Context and Election Dynamics
The New York gubernatorial race follows a pattern seen in recent statewide elections, where incumbents have seen their leads narrow significantly in the final weeks. Hochul’s current deficit is smaller than Zeldin’s in 2022, but the race remains competitive in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly two-to-one. The outcome could signal broader trends in voter sentiment ahead of the midterm elections, particularly in high-profile contests where Democratic incumbents face Republican challengers in traditionally blue states.