A new poll released Wednesday indicates Los Angeles Councilwoman Nithya Raman holds a double-digit lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass with six weeks remaining until the November 3 election. The survey, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, shows Raman at 39% support among likely voters, compared to Bass’s 28%.
The poll, which surveyed likely Los Angeles voters, also found that a third of respondents remained undecided as mail-in ballots prepare to be distributed. The findings mark a significant shift from the June primary, where Bass finished first with 34% and Raman second with 29%, advancing to the runoff.
Key Poll Details
The UC Berkeley/LA Times poll, released days before early voting begins, underscores the fluidity of the race. Among the undecided voters, 63% were previously supporters of independent candidate Spencer Pratt, who was eliminated in the primary with 26% of the vote. Of those former Pratt supporters, 22% now lean toward Bass while 16% favor Raman.
Reactions to the Poll
Conservative commentator Spencer Pratt, who ran as an independent in the primary, claimed the results validated his prediction. In a social media post, Pratt stated, “I told everyone that if you don’t vote for me, Raman will beat Bass. That’s why she entered the race 10 minutes before the clerk's office closed.” He added, “Good luck LA,” in reference to the poll’s findings.
Pratt’s remarks referenced Raman’s affiliation with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a group he has previously criticized. Raman has described the DSA as a potential “partner” to City Hall, though her campaign has not detailed specific policy collaborations.
Historical Context
The poll’s timing—just days before mail-in ballots are mailed—highlights the race’s unpredictability. Historically, late shifts in voter preference have played a role in Los Angeles municipal elections, particularly when third-party or independent candidates siphon support from major-party contenders.
What’s Next
Early voting in Los Angeles begins October 7, with Election Day set for November 3. The UC Berkeley/LA Times poll, conducted between September 12–18, surveyed 1,398 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the full sample.