Republican Sen. Susan Collins holds a three-point lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in Maine’s closely watched Senate race, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted Sept. 15-22. The survey of 619 likely voters found Collins at 49% support, Jackson at 46%, with 5% undecided.
The race remains highly competitive, as Collins’ advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This marks the first time Collins has led in an independent poll since Jackson became the Democratic nominee.
Collins’ lead comes despite broader Democratic gains in key Senate races, as the party seeks to retake the chamber in November. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure an outright Senate majority.
Polling Context and Historical Trends
Recent polls have shown a tight race, with some surveys placing Jackson narrowly ahead. A Quantus Insights poll conducted Sept. 14-15 found Collins at 47.1% and Jackson at 46.4%, effectively a statistical tie within its 4.3-point margin of error. Other polls had previously given Jackson slight leads.
Collins has a history of outperforming polling averages, particularly in competitive races. Her current lead, while narrow, aligns with this trend. Political analysts at The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a tossup.
Voter Sentiment and Cross-Partisan Support
Fifty-five percent of respondents in the New York Times/Siena poll said they preferred Democrats to control the Senate, while 51% viewed Collins favorably, compared to 41% for Jackson. Collins received support from 8% of Democrats, while the candidates were tied at 47% among unenrolled and other voters.
FBI Investigation Allegations
The poll was conducted largely before the publication of a ProPublica report detailing an abandoned FBI investigation into allegations involving Collins and a defense contractor. The investigation, which was later dropped, found no evidence implicating Collins or her campaign, according to the FBI.
Collins’ office denied wrongdoing, calling the report a “partisan hit job.” Jackson, in response, stated on social media that “Susan Collins is blatantly corrupt.”
Campaign Dynamics and Historical Context
Collins, a six-term senator, is running for re-election in a state that has trended bluer in recent years. Despite this, she has maintained strong crossover appeal. Her opponent, Troy Jackson, previously served as Maine Senate President and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2022.
The race is critical for both parties: A Republican loss in Maine would significantly complicate GOP efforts to retain their Senate majority. Democrats, meanwhile, see the seat as a top pickup opportunity in their bid to regain control of the chamber.
Recent Developments in the Race
Jackson replaced Graham Platner, the Democratic nominee who dropped out in July after an allegation of rape surfaced from a former partner. Platner denied the claim and withdrew from the race. Polls at the time showed Collins slightly trailing Platner.
Jackson won the party’s nomination through a special convention and has campaigned alongside Platner, who had previously run for governor. The race remains fluid, with both campaigns actively engaging voters ahead of the November election.