A national Emerson College poll released 40 days before the midterm elections shows Democrats leading Republicans by 11 points on the congressional ballot, with 53% support for Democrats and 42% for Republicans. The survey, conducted September 21–22 among 1,000 likely voters, has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
Independent voters favor Democratic candidates by 60% to 31%, while Hispanic voters break for Democrats 64% to 31%, according to the poll. The Democratic advantage among independents and Hispanic voters marks a shift from 2024, when both groups backed former President Donald Trump more strongly. The poll also indicates 78% of Democrats are very excited to vote, compared to 70% of independents and 66% of Republicans.
Economic concerns remain the top priority for 41% of voters, with Democrats leading 55% to 41% among those prioritizing the economy. Other leading issues include threats to democracy (17%), immigration (13%), and healthcare (12%). The Iran war received the highest average importance score among tested issues, followed by jobs and tariff policy.
The Democratic lead of 11 points matches the series high first reached in Emerson’s July poll, signaling a sustained national environment that poses challenges for Republican candidates. The generic ballot measures voter sentiment broadly rather than individual races, which will determine control of Congress.
The poll results follow a gradual shift in momentum, with Democrats moving from a tie in Emerson’s August 2025 polling to their current advantage. The findings underscore the competitive landscape heading into the midterms, where control of Congress remains uncertain.