A YouGov MRP poll released following the appointment of Prime Minister Andy Burnham projects Labour would win 241 seats in a parliamentary election, significantly improving on prior projections. The survey, conducted after Burnham took office in July, indicates Labour would secure the most seats but fall short of a majority, potentially requiring a coalition with smaller parties.
The poll also places Reform UK in third position, with 123 seats, behind both Labour and the Conservatives, who are projected to win 130 seats. This marks a decline for Reform UK, which had led similar polls in early 2025. The results have fueled speculation that Burnham may consider calling an early general election, possibly as soon as December, according to Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
Labour’s projected gains come amid a sustained increase in approval ratings since Burnham’s appointment, with the party overtaking Reform UK for the first time since March 2025. However, the new projections suggest Labour would lose 162 seats compared to its current total, resulting in a hung parliament where no party holds an outright majority. This would necessitate negotiations with the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Scottish National Party to form a governing coalition.
Conservative Response
Badenoch described Burnham as a “gambler” who may risk an early election to secure a fresh mandate. She argued that Labour’s economic policies, particularly regarding defense funding, could undermine its stability, stating that Defense Secretary John Healey resigned over insufficient allocations. Badenoch also warned of the possibility of a second election within months, citing historical precedents such as the 1974 double election.
Polling Context and Implications
The YouGov MRP analysis, commissioned by The Times, is one of the first major polls to assess the political landscape under Burnham’s leadership. While Labour remains the dominant force, the projected hung parliament raises questions about governance stability. Analysts note that even with the most seats, Labour would face challenges in passing legislation without cross-party support.
The polling data underscores a shifting dynamic in British politics, with Reform UK’s influence waning and traditional parties regaining ground. The results also highlight the potential for early electoral maneuvers, as political leaders weigh the risks and rewards of going to the polls ahead of the 2029 deadline.