The Cook Political Report has revised its projections for the 2024 midterm elections, now favoring Democrats to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The shift follows changes in polling and advertising spending in battleground races.
Democrats hold advantage in 208 House races compared to 205 for Republicans, according to Cook analyst Erin Covey. The report rates races as Solid, Likely, or Lean Democratic for Democrats and similarly for Republicans. All 435 House seats are up for election in November.
The Cook Political Report now rates 37 House races as competitive, with 21 of those toss-ups. Republicans currently hold a 218-214 edge in the chamber, with two seats vacant and one independent. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority.
In the Senate, the Cook Political Report has adjusted ratings in key races. The Kansas race between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and Democrat Adam Hamilton shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, while the South Carolina race between Sen. Darline Graham (R) and Democrat Annie Andrews moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Georgia’s race between Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R) was upgraded from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, citing Ossoff’s fundraising advantage.
The Cook Political Report now rates overall Senate control as a Toss Up, with Democrats projected to net between one and five seats. They need to net four seats to win the majority.
Key Senate Race Updates:
- Kansas: Marshall faces scrutiny over billing practices as an OB-GYN, which Democrats plan to highlight in ads. High fuel and fertilizer prices, along with trade disputes, have also influenced the race.
- South Carolina: Graham’s race has tightened, with Democrats pointing to economic concerns and Trump’s declining approval ratings.
- Georgia: Ossoff’s fundraising advantage has strengthened his position, though Collins remains competitive.
In the House, several races have shifted in recent weeks. The Ohio 7th District race between incumbent Republican Max Miller and Democrat Brian Poindexter has moved from solidly Republican to a toss-up. Miller faces a House Ethics Committee investigation after his ex-wife, Emily Moreno, accused him of physical abuse, which he has denied. Additional allegations from former White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham have further complicated his campaign.
President Trump’s approval rating remains under 40%, which analysts suggest may benefit Democrats in unexpected districts. However, progressive shifts within the Democratic Party have also created challenges for some moderate candidates.
The Cook Political Report emphasizes that the current environment is fluid, with Republicans needing to counter Democratic momentum as the election approaches.