Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow lead of 3 percentage points over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s Senate race, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday. The survey, conducted among 1,099 likely voters from September 22, found El-Sayed at 47% to Rogers’ 44%, with 2% backing Libertarian candidate Lydia Christensen and 1% supporting Tim Long of the U.S. Taxpayers Party. The poll carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
El-Sayed’s advantage aligns with recent polling trends. A New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this week showed him leading 49% to 44% among likely voters, while a Suffolk University survey gave him a 7-point lead. The Sabato’s Crystal Ball election forecaster shifted its rating for the race from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic,” citing El-Sayed’s consistent narrow advantage in polls.
Voter Priorities and Policy Concerns
Economic issues remain a top concern for Michigan voters, with 52.6% naming the economy and prices as their primary priority. However, El-Sayed has gained traction on the issue of artificial intelligence and data centers, an area where voters express significant skepticism. A New York Times/Siena poll found that 46% of voters trust El-Sayed to handle AI and data center policies, compared to 35% who favor Rogers. Additionally, 66% of voters oppose the construction of AI data centers, while 29% support it.
The partisan divide in the race is stark. Only 3% of Democrats back Rogers, while roughly the same percentage of Republicans support El-Sayed. Among independent voters, El-Sayed holds a 1-point edge in the Times/Siena poll, though the Suffolk survey showed him leading by 16 points with this group. Age is another dividing line: El-Sayed leads by 71 points among voters aged 18-29 and by 21 points among those 30-44, while Rogers leads by 16 points among voters 45-64 and by 5 points among those 65 and older.
El-Sayed’s Stance on HIV Criminalization Law
Eight years after calling for the repeal of a Michigan law that criminalized sex without disclosing HIV status, El-Sayed has reiterated his position as he campaigns in one of the nation’s most competitive Senate races. The law, which carried a prison sentence of up to four years, was a focal point of El-Sayed’s 2018 gubernatorial campaign, where he argued that “no disease can be illegal” and that the law stigmatized people with HIV. His campaign website at the time stated, “Repeal HIV/AIDS criminalization laws and the exclusion of transgender Michiganders from state Medicaid.”
El-Sayed’s opponent, Mike Rogers, has framed the race as a choice between “crazy versus common sense,” while describing El-Sayed as the “Democratic Socialists of America darling.” Rogers’ campaign has also highlighted El-Sayed’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a group with a net negative rating among Michigan voters, according to a poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC. The survey found that 52.7% of respondents said El-Sayed’s association with the DSA would make them less likely to vote for him, while 51.9% viewed the organization unfavorably.
Campaign Dynamics and External Factors
El-Sayed has received endorsements from prominent progressives, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), though he has stated he does not identify as a democratic socialist. His campaign has also faced scrutiny over his association with streamer Hasan Piker, whom some critics have characterized as a controversial figure. El-Sayed has dismissed these criticisms, emphasizing his focus on economic and healthcare issues.
The race is critical for Democrats aiming to retain control of the Senate, as Michigan is considered a must-hold seat. The outcome could influence broader political dynamics in the state, particularly among younger voters and progressives who have shown increasing engagement in recent elections.