Democratic Texas State Representative James Talarico holds a 3-point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the state’s closely contested U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Big Data Poll conducted September 24–26. The survey of 698 likely voters shows Talarico at 44.6% to Paxton’s 41.6%, excluding leaners, with a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
The race has drawn national attention as Democrats aim to flip the Senate seat currently held by retiring Republican Senator John Cornyn. A separate SoCal Strategies poll conducted September 12–13 found similar results, with Talarico leading among Harris voters and Paxton trailing among Trump voters. The Big Data Poll also revealed that 15% of 2024 Trump voters support Talarico, while only 4.3% of Harris voters back Paxton.
Talarico’s campaign has faced criticism from a Trump-aligned super PAC, MAGA Inc., which released an ad on September 26 using Talarico’s past statements to question his fitness for office. The ad highlights remarks Talarico made about biological sexes, Christianity, and Jesus Christ, framing him as “WEIRD” and out of touch with Texas values. Talarico, who has represented Texas in the state legislature, responded by stating he would still seek Senator Cornyn’s counsel if elected, emphasizing a willingness to work across party lines.
The Marist poll, released last week, showed Talarico ahead by 6 points, with strong support from Gen Z voters under 29, who favored him by 74%. The poll surveyed 1,139 registered voters from September 17–20, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Both campaigns have not immediately responded to requests for comment outside regular office hours. The race remains one of the most closely watched in the November midterms, with implications for control of the U.S. Senate.