A new AARP poll released Monday shows Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by 11 percentage points in the North Carolina Senate race, a closely watched contest in the 2026 midterm elections. The survey, conducted among likely voters, found Cooper at 53% support compared to Whatley’s 42%, with 5% undecided and 1% favoring another candidate.
The poll also revealed a 25-point advantage for Cooper among independent voters, a demographic that favored Republicans in the 2024 presidential election. This shift underscores the competitiveness of the race, which Democrats view as critical to their efforts to regain control of the U.S. Senate in November 2026.
Cooper’s campaign manager, Jeff Allen, framed the poll results as evidence of North Carolina’s status as a 50-50 state, emphasizing the need for a margin-of-error campaign. “This will be a margin-of-error race, which is why we’re building a campaign to earn every vote,” Allen stated. He added that Cooper’s opponent, Whatley, represents a continuation of Republican priorities that prioritize “elite D.C. connections” over state interests.
The AARP poll comes as President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains underwater in North Carolina, despite his narrow 3-point victory in the state during the 2024 election. The survey did not specify whether Trump’s approval trends influenced the Senate race dynamics.
Whatley’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment from Newsweek or the Washington Examiner at the time of publication.
Background: A High-Stakes Senate Battle
North Carolina’s Senate race is widely regarded as one of the most competitive in the 2026 midterms, with both parties allocating significant resources to secure the seat. Democrats have identified the state as a top flip opportunity, aiming to expand their battleground beyond traditionally competitive states. Republicans, meanwhile, view the race as essential to maintaining their Senate majority.
The contest is a rematch of sorts, as Whatley previously served as chair of the Republican National Committee during the 2024 election cycle. His opponent, Cooper, served as North Carolina’s governor from 2017 to 2025 and has not won a statewide federal office since 2004, when Democrat Mike Easley was elected governor.
Polling Context and Implications
The AARP poll aligns with broader Democratic optimism about North Carolina’s electoral landscape. While Republicans have historically performed well in the state, recent polling trends suggest shifting voter sentiment. Analysts note that the independent voter shift could signal broader dissatisfaction with GOP leadership or economic concerns.
The race remains fluid, with both campaigns expected to intensify outreach efforts in the coming months. Political observers caution that early polling does not always predict final outcomes, particularly in races with high turnout potential.
Key Takeaways
- Cooper holds an 11-point lead in the North Carolina Senate race, per an AARP poll.
- Independents favor Cooper by 25 points, a reversal from 2024 trends.
- Trump’s approval remains low in North Carolina, adding pressure on GOP candidates.
- Both parties view the race as pivotal for Senate control in 2026.