The final contingent of US military personnel departed from Iraq by September 30, marking the end of a two-decade military presence in the country. The withdrawal was confirmed through a full and final agreement between Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih al-Zaidi and US Central Command Chief Admiral Brad Cooper, as outlined in a statement by al-Zaidi. The move fulfills a 2024 decision by President Joe Biden, implemented under the Trump administration, to conclude Operation Inherent Resolve, the US-led coalition mission that began in 2014 to combat ISIS.
Iraqi officials frame withdrawal as sovereignty milestone
Iraqi state media INA characterized the withdrawal as a historic milestone in Iraq’s path toward completing national sovereignty, emphasizing the country’s ability to assume full responsibility for its security and economic decisions. The statement highlighted the transition as an opportunity to strengthen the rule of law, attract investment, and implement structural reforms. Prime Minister al-Zaidi noted that October 1 marks a new day for Iraq, with the country assuming sole responsibility for its security and stability. This framing contrasts with earlier periods when Iraq relied on US military support, including during the 2014 ISIS offensive that overran Sunni-majority cities like Mosul and led to the genocide of Yazidis.
Concerns over security vacuum and regional influence
Despite the celebratory tone from Iraqi leadership, security analysts and tribal leaders expressed reservations about the timing of the withdrawal. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst specializing in Shiite armed groups aligned with Iran, warned that the departure removes a military counterweight to Tehran’s influence in Iraq. He predicted that pro-Iranian militias would leverage the withdrawal to expand their political and security control. Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed factions, described the withdrawal as a historic victory for resistance groups and a defeat for the US presence. His remarks underscored the narrative of US defeat and Iraqi sovereignty championed by these factions.
Military context and human cost
The US military’s return to Iraq in 2014 followed the rapid territorial gains by ISIS, which exploited sectarian tensions under former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government. The US-led coalition, including international partners, supported Iraqi forces in reclaiming ISIS-held territory by 2017, with the final ISIS stronghold in Syria liberated in March 2019. The withdrawal concludes operations that resulted in the deaths of 123 US military personnel, including Sgt. Michael Swinton, killed in a controlled detonation in July 2024. The broader US military engagement in Iraq, spanning Operation Iraqi Freedom (2003–2011) and subsequent missions, incurred the loss of 4,418 US personnel, with a majority from the army.
Iraqi perspectives on readiness and future risks
While the withdrawal is broadly popular among Iraqis, some voices questioned the country’s preparedness to assume full security responsibilities. Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader in Fallujah, stated that Iraq remains not fully ready to take over the security file at this time. Analysts also raised the risk of an ISIS resurgence, noting that the group’s ideology and networks persist despite territorial losses. The departure of US forces removes a deterrent against both ISIS and Iran-backed militias, creating a security vacuum that could be exploited by hostile actors.
Economic and diplomatic implications
Iraqi officials have framed the withdrawal as an opportunity to bolster economic independence, with state media emphasizing the need for structural reforms to attract domestic and foreign investment. Prime Minister al-Zaidi’s recent visit to the US sought to negotiate energy and economic agreements, signaling Iraq’s intent to diversify partnerships. However, the withdrawal’s timing amid ongoing regional conflicts, including US operations against Iran, adds complexity to Iraq’s diplomatic and security calculus. The transition also raises questions about the sustainability of Iraq’s security apparatus without continued US support.