An unnamed advisor to former President Donald Trump privately acknowledged that the upcoming midterm elections will be challenging for Republicans, calling the outcome 'f***ing rough' in remarks to CNN. The warning contrasts with public statements from GOP officials and Trump himself, who has urged voters to 'pretend I’m on the ballot' while campaigning for candidates nationwide.
Trump’s Inner Circle Signals Growing Concerns
A senior Trump advisor told CNN that the best-case scenario for Republicans would mirror the 2022 midterms, when Democrats retained control of the Senate but lost the House. The advisor’s comments reflect a souring mood within Trump’s orbit, with few believing he can sway swing voters or independents ahead of November 3.
Publicly, however, Trump has maintained an optimistic tone. At a recent GOP event in Dallas, he pledged to campaign aggressively for candidates in competitive races, framing the midterms as a referendum on his leadership. 'Today, I don’t think there will be a blue wave at all,' White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair told the Free Press earlier this month, echoing Trump’s upbeat assessment.
GOP Candidates Distance Themselves from Trump
In a shift from earlier campaign strategies, several Republican candidates in toss-up races have removed references to Trump from their campaign websites, according to a Newsweek analysis of archived pages. The changes coincide with Trump’s record-low approval ratings on key issues, including the economy, immigration, and international trade. Pollsters cited in the report suggest Trump’s standing among voters has dropped to historic lows in recent weeks.
The trend is not limited to lesser-known candidates. Even longtime Trump allies, such as North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley, have downplayed their association with the former president in recent months. Whatley’s campaign website, reviewed by Newsweek, no longer features Trump in its current iteration, though older versions prominently displayed his endorsement.
Republican Leaders Offer Mixed Signals
At the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s retreat in Sea Island, Ga., NRSC pollster Erik Iverson insisted that every incumbent GOP senator would be reelected and that Republicans could even gain a Senate seat. However, no public polling currently supports this assessment. Trump has dismissed polls as 'fake,' despite previously claiming in an August interview that he would win the midterms by '25 points' if held today.
Meanwhile, some Republicans have broken with Trump on policy, including immigration and the Iran war, further complicating the party’s messaging. Washington Examiner executive editor Bob Cusack noted that GOP lawmakers face a difficult choice: aligning with Trump risks alienating swing voters, but distancing themselves could undermine support from his base.
Historical Context and Polling Skepticism
Historian Marvin Meyers’ adage—'If you want to know what a politician is up to, watch his feet, not his mouth'—has resurfaced in discussions about GOP strategy. While Trump has promised aggressive campaigning, his recent public appearances have been limited, and his disapproval ratings remain near record highs. Critics argue that the party’s reliance on Trump’s endorsement may backfire in competitive districts.
Polling accuracy has also become a point of contention. Skeptics point to recent election cycles where polls failed to predict outcomes accurately, while others note that Trump’s own claims about his electoral strength contradict his declining approval ratings. The debate underscores the uncertainty surrounding the midterms, with no clear consensus on what voters will prioritize in November.