A new poll of likely voters shows Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico 48% to 45% in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a survey conducted by Pulse Decision Science from September 24-27. The race remains highly competitive with 35 days remaining until Election Day.
The contest has drawn significant attention due to its potential to test Texas’ long-standing Republican dominance in statewide elections. Talarico, a state representative, is seeking to become the first Democrat in over 30 years to win a statewide race in Texas, while Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is running for the U.S. Senate after ousting incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary.
National Democratic groups have recently increased spending in the race, with the Senate Majority PAC launching a digital ad campaign highlighting a plea deal negotiated by Paxton as part of a broader effort through Election Day. The ad marks the first major investment by Senate leadership in the contest, though some strategists argue the spending may have come too late. Talarico has raised nearly $70 million, while outside Republican groups have spent nearly $150 million in support of Paxton.
Key Developments in the Race
Polling and Campaign Spending
The latest poll reflects a narrow lead for Paxton, though Talarico maintains an average 2.9% lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average. President Donald Trump has endorsed Paxton, calling him “one of the best state attorneys general in the entire country” and urging voters to support his candidacy.
Talarico’s Fundraising and Strategy
Talarico has positioned himself as a prolific fundraiser, allowing him to secure more cost-effective advertising rates compared to outside groups. Democratic strategist Jon Reinish noted that Talarico’s financial strength may indicate Republican concern, stating, “If Republicans were not pretty d** worried, they would not be dropping hundreds of millions of dollars that they probably should be spending in Ohio, Kansas, Nebraska, and a lot of other places.”*
Policy Positions and Controversies
Talarico has faced scrutiny over his evolving stance on transgender issues. In an undercover video recorded at Houston’s Wheeler Avenue Baptist Church on September 13, Talarico stated that his position on transgender children had “not changed” and that he would carry his legislative record into the U.S. Senate. He added that transgender sports eligibility should be handled locally, saying, “I still think these should be local decisions, sport by sport, athlete by athlete.”
However, in a September 9 interview with Fox News, Talarico said he opposed transgender athletes participating in girls’ sports if it risks safety or fairness. He also walked back a past claim that there are six biological sexes and pledged to “absolutely” support a national ban on gender-transition surgeries for minors. As a state representative, Talarico voted against Senate Bill 14 (2023), which restricted such procedures, and Senate Bill 29 (2021), which tied school athletes to the sex on their birth certificates.
Voter Turnout and Demographic Shifts
Black and Hispanic Voters as Decisive Blocs
Texas has 2.7 million Black eligible voters, the highest of any state, concentrated in Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and East Texas. Black and Hispanic voters are seen as pivotal in Talarico’s path to victory, with some voters expressing optimism about his chances. Mike, a military veteran from Dallas, told Fox News Digital, “I think it depends on whether the Black and Brown voters come out for Talarico.”
Former President Barack Obama campaigned with Talarico in Austin in May, underscoring the Democratic Party’s effort to mobilize Black voters and potentially shift Texas’ political landscape. However, Talarico faces challenges in uniting Democrats after a divisive primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett, which he ultimately won.
Campaign Dynamics and External Factors
Republican Countermeasures
Outside Republican groups, including the Texas PAC linked to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have poured nearly $150 million into the race in support of Paxton. This spending reflects broader GOP concerns about holding the seat, despite Texas’ traditional Republican lean.
Talarico’s Legislative Record
Talarico has framed his campaign around his record in the Texas House, where he served from 2013 to 2023. His positions on education, healthcare, and economic policy have been central to his messaging, though his comments on transgender issues have drawn mixed reactions from voters and advocacy groups.
What’s Next
With 35 days until Election Day, both campaigns are expected to intensify their outreach efforts. National Democratic groups have signaled they will continue investing in the race, while Republican outside groups have already deployed significant resources. The outcome of the election could have broader implications for Texas’ political future and the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.