Crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to prewar levels, with a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) as of Monday, according to data from Kpler, a global trade flow tracker. This marks a recovery to baseline volumes before the recent conflict, driven in part by U.S. military escorts securing passage and pipelines redirecting flows away from the strait. The broader Middle East region, including the Persian Gulf and Red Sea, now averages 19.5 million bpd, exceeding its prewar baseline of 17 million bpd.
However, the rebound is uneven. While crude shipments have normalized, refined product supplies remain constrained, with diesel and gasoline shipments through Hormuz at just 677,000 bpd—a fraction of the 3.6 million bpd recorded before the war. Combined crude and product shipments now average 14.2 million bpd, about 80% of the prewar baseline of 17 million bpd, per Kpler.
Ongoing disruptions and attacks continue to complicate the recovery. On Wednesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported that three vessels carrying fuel were attacked in a corridor of the strait that the U.S. military has been attempting to secure. The incidents underscore persistent risks to shipping despite the improved crude flow.
Global fuel prices remain elevated as a result of the supply shortfall. In the U.S., the average price of a gallon of diesel reached $6.41, while regular gasoline averaged $4.43, according to AAA. The price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, hovered above $100 per barrel—roughly 40% higher than at the start of the conflict in February.
Policy responses and political pressure are intensifying. President Donald Trump is considering an export ban on refined products, facing calls from Republican lawmakers ahead of the midterm elections. Analysts warn that such a move could further tighten global supplies. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline resumed limited operations, contributing to a temporary dip in crude prices.
Market analysts caution that the recovery is fragile. Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group, described the crude rebound as "good news" but emphasized that the market remains in a "deep deficit." Natasha Kaneva of JPMorgan noted that while the crude market has largely normalized, refined product supplies are still far below prewar levels. The Ukraine war has further strained global refining capacity by targeting Russian refineries, exacerbating the fuel shortage.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, with Iran having repeatedly claimed control over the waterway during the conflict. However, data shows that despite Tehran’s declarations, shipments have continued at high volumes. Matt Smith of Kpler stated that Iran’s influence over Hormuz is waning as traffic persists. Iran has not commented publicly on the recent attacks or the resumption of shipments.
The long-term outlook hinges on multiple factors, including the stability of military escorts, the pace of pipeline repairs, and the resolution of geopolitical tensions. Analysts agree that while crude flows have improved, the path to full normalization—particularly for refined products—remains uncertain.