A new Marist poll released Thursday shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by 7 points among Michigan registered voters in the U.S. Senate race. The survey of 1,235 voters, conducted between September 24 and 27, found 51% support for El-Sayed compared to 44% for Rogers, marking the largest lead El-Sayed has held since the campaign began in April 2025.
A separate Fox News poll released Wednesday also indicates a competitive race, with El-Sayed holding a 1-point edge (50% to 49%) among likely voters and a 3-point lead (51% to 48%) among registered voters. The Fox News survey, which polled likely voters, suggests 15% of respondents could switch their vote before Election Day, including 18% of Rogers’ supporters and 12% of El-Sayed’s.
Race Dynamics and Voter Concerns
The tight contest reflects broader concerns among Michigan voters about both candidates. According to the Fox News poll, 39% of likely voters are extremely concerned about Rogers’ proximity to former President Donald Trump, while 36% say El-Sayed’s views are too liberal. Favorable ratings are similarly close, with 47% viewing El-Sayed positively compared to 44% for Rogers.
El-Sayed’s support is strongest among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups, including women, Black voters, college-educated voters, and those under age 45. He also leads with union households, though this subgroup represents a small portion of the electorate. Rogers, meanwhile, draws his strongest backing from men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters, and White voters without a college degree.
Campaign Strategies and Key Issues
El-Sayed, a progressive candidate, has campaigned on policies including Medicare for All, taxing billionaire wealth, and environmental protections. The Marist poll marks the third consecutive survey showing El-Sayed with a double-digit lead, following a 46% to 39% margin in an August Susquehanna Polling and Research survey and a 47% to 40% lead in a September Suffolk University Boston poll.
Rogers, who currently serves in Congress, faces the challenge of appealing to moderate voters uneasy with El-Sayed’s progressive platform. The Fox News poll notes that El-Sayed’s positive ratings among registered voters have increased by 5 points since August, while Rogers’ have declined by 4 points during the same period.
Party Loyalty and Electoral Implications
Both candidates receive near-universal support from their respective parties. The Fox News poll found that 95% of Republicans back Rogers, while 94% of Democrats support El-Sayed. The race is critical for both parties: Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and Democrats are targeting Michigan as a potential flip opportunity in the midterms.
Polls in the race have varied in methodology and timing. The Marist survey, conducted over three days in late September, has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Susquehanna poll, taken in mid-August, had a margin of error of +/- 3.46 points, while the Suffolk University Boston poll, conducted in mid-September, carried a margin of error of +/- 4.4 points.
Key Dates and Next Steps
The Michigan Senate race remains one of the most closely watched contests in the 2025 midterms. Senator Gary Peters’ surprise retirement left the seat open, prompting both parties to invest heavily in the campaign. Early voting is expected to begin in October, with Election Day scheduled for November 5, 2025.