Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated Sunday that gasoline and diesel prices are expected to decline by U.S. midterm elections, despite ongoing disruptions from the Iran conflict that began earlier this year. Wright made the remarks during an interview on CBS News’ Face the Nation, emphasizing that U.S. gasoline production is at record highs and demand is decreasing as summer driving season ends.
Wright acknowledged that President Donald Trump was aware of energy price risks before authorizing strikes on Iran in February, framing the decision as a trade-off between preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and short-term fuel market volatility. He also asserted that Trump has sought to end the conflict since before taking office, arguing that ceasing hostilities would lower energy prices and reduce casualties.
Oil and gas prices surged following the February strikes, with the national average gas price reaching $4.37 per gallon—up from $2.98 before the conflict—according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route handling 20% of global oil demand, has faced disruptions due to the war, further tightening supply.
Administration’s Rationale: Why Prices Are Expected to Fall
Wright attributed the projected price decline to three key factors:
- Increased U.S. gasoline production, which he said is at an all-time high.
- Reduced demand as summer driving season concludes.
- Stabilization efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, where he claimed supply flows are improving.
He also criticized long-term energy policies under prior administrations, stating that 15 years of policies aimed at closing refineries and coal plants have weakened U.S. energy resilience. Wright specifically cited the recent closure of two large refineries in California, which he attributed to state policies under Governor Gavin Newsom.
Policy Tensions: Tariffs and Global Energy Markets
During the interview, Wright fielded questions about potential U.S. tariffs on adversaries purchasing Russian oil, particularly from China. When asked whether such measures could be implemented to curb price spikes, Wright responded that the administration is exploring options but did not provide further details.
The Russia-Ukraine war and China’s reduced diesel and gasoline exports were also cited as contributing factors to current fuel price levels. Wright described these as external pressures exacerbating the energy crunch.
Ongoing Risks and Uncertainty
Despite the optimistic forecast, Wright acknowledged persistent threats to energy infrastructure, including continued Iranian attacks on shipping lanes. He warned that potential October surprises—such as further Gulf energy infrastructure disruptions—could still impact prices before the November elections.
He also declined to comment on whether the administration would resume military action against Iran following the midterms, stating only that the focus remains on ending the current conflict.
Context: The February Strikes and Their Aftermath
Wright framed Trump’s February strikes on Iran as a calculated risk, balancing nuclear non-proliferation goals against immediate economic costs. He described the president as having sacrificed political standing to prevent Iran from developing nuclear capabilities, though he did not specify how this trade-off was measured or communicated to the public.
The strikes triggered immediate market reactions, with oil prices rising by $1 per barrel shortly after the conflict began, according to Reuters. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has not yet released updated projections on how the war’s duration might further affect global oil supply.
Diverging Views on Energy Policy and Conflict Resolution
While Wright emphasized ending the war as the primary solution to high fuel prices, critics—including some energy analysts—have argued that geopolitical instability in the Middle East requires broader strategic responses beyond ceasefire negotiations. Others contend that U.S. energy independence policies should prioritize domestic production expansion rather than relying on short-term market adjustments.
No additional officials or independent experts provided on-the-record reactions to Wright’s claims by press time.