Nearly 20 commercial ships, primarily tankers, have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, and off Oman over the past month, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center, a U.S.-allied military group monitoring maritime security. The surge in attacks—averaging two incidents per 100 vessels transiting the strait in the third quarter—threatens the fragile rebound of crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf, which currently depend on U.S. military protection along a southern route near Oman.
Commercial shipping traffic through the strait has plummeted from 125 vessels daily before the conflict to an average of 18 vessels in late September, disrupting global supply chains that rely on the region’s oil flows. While some tankers continue transiting the strait, many now use a ship-to-ship transfer system in the Gulf of Oman to reduce exposure to attacks. This method, though safer, increases costs and inefficiencies, with crude oil shipments fluctuating daily—sometimes matching pre-conflict levels of 10.3 million barrels per day (bpd) and at other times falling below them.
The U.S. military’s role in securing the route has drawn criticism for its financial unsustainability. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former energy advisor to President George W. Bush, described the current system as an “inefficient way to move commodities”, citing heightened tanker rates and the need for additional vessels. Meanwhile, Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, noted that the rebound in exports remains fragile without a negotiated settlement or a shift in Iran’s actions.
Ship-to-ship transfers have become a critical workaround, allowing tankers to offload oil in the Gulf of Oman before it reaches Asian markets. However, this approach requires more vessels and increases operational costs, raising concerns about long-term viability. Data from Kpler, a firm tracking global trade flows, shows that while some weeks see exports return to pre-conflict levels, others fall short, reflecting the volatile security environment in the region.