Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane by Friday night, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The system, currently moving east at 5 mph, is expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. this weekend into early next week.
Core Developments
The NHC projects the depression will become a tropical storm by Wednesday and a hurricane by Thursday, with estimated winds of 100 mph by Friday night. If named, it would be called Isaias. The storm is on track to pass north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast by Friday, with potential impacts across Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle.
Forecast Uncertainty
While models agree on a northward trajectory, timing and intensity remain uncertain. Some forecasts suggest impacts could begin Friday evening, while others delay them until later in the weekend. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk for parts of the Southeast on Friday and Saturday.
Environmental Factors
The storm is developing over record-warm Gulf waters, currently the warmest on record since 1982. Warm ocean temperatures are conducive to tropical development, though September passed without a hurricane for the first time in 32 years despite being the climatological peak of the season.
Hurricane Hunters in Action
The Hurricane Hunters conducted aerial reconnaissance on Tuesday to measure the storm’s size and gather data for forecasters. This data is critical for refining intensity and landfall predictions.
Long-Range Projections
Some models indicate the system’s moisture could extend as far north as the Ohio Valley and Northeast by midweek next week, though this remains speculative. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
Historical Context
If the storm reaches tropical storm strength, it would be named Isaias, replacing the retired name of Isaac from 2008. "I"-named storms have historically been among the most frequently retired in the Atlantic basin, including Ian (2022), Ida (2021), Irma (2017), and Irene (2011).