Republican candidates in key midterm races are grappling with record-low approval ratings for former President Donald Trump and persistent voter concerns over the economy, as late spending by Trump-aligned groups struggles to offset broader challenges ahead of the November 3 elections.
Trump’s campaign arm, MAGA Inc., has deployed nearly $416 million in cash since late August, but Republican strategists warn the funds may have arrived too late to counterbalance voter discontent. Meanwhile, inflation remains at 3.4%, gas prices average $4.37 per gallon, and 63% of Americans believe the economy is worsening, according to recent polls. These factors have left GOP candidates in a precarious position, with some distancing themselves from Trump while others double down on his support.
GOP Candidates Split Over Trump’s Campaign Role
Republican candidates in battleground races are divided over whether to align with Trump, whose approval rating stands at 32%, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. Some fear associating with Trump could alienate moderate voters, while others rely on his endorsement and financial backing to remain competitive.
In Texas, where Trump is campaigning for Senator Ted Cruz’s successor, MAGA Inc. has spent over $22 million in the past month alone. Another group, the Texas PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has spent $83 million in the same period to defend a traditionally safe Republican seat. Despite these efforts, polls suggest voter dissatisfaction with the economy remains a dominant concern.
Economic Concerns Overshadow Trump’s Claims
Trump has repeatedly defended his economic record, asserting that “we have the best economic numbers of any president in history.” However, inflation outpaces wage growth, and beef prices are at record highs, contradicting his claims of economic prosperity. A YouGov survey found 63% of respondents believe the economy is getting worse, while an AP/NORC poll showed only 17% approve of Trump’s handling of cost-of-living issues.
Critics argue that Trump’s policies, including tariffs and aggressive immigration enforcement, have contributed to economic strain, though supporters counter that his economic agenda laid the groundwork for current growth. The ongoing conflict with Iran has also fueled concerns over gas prices and national security.
Late Spending Raises Questions About Strategy
Republican strategists report that MAGA Inc.’s late spending surge has driven up advertising costs, with some groups paying five times more than they would have if they had reserved airtime earlier. A representative for MAGA Inc. defended the strategy, stating that the spending has helped keep races competitive where Democratic candidates would otherwise dominate the airwaves.
However, four Republican Senate campaign officials, speaking anonymously, expressed skepticism that the funds would be sufficient to overcome broader electoral challenges. The $1 billion in total Republican spending—much of it from Trump-aligned groups—has yet to translate into a clear advantage in key races.
Voter Priorities Shift Focus to Cost of Living
Polling data indicates that cost of living is the top issue for voters, with Avery James, director of communications at Echelon Insights, noting that “cost of living, cost of living, cost of living” is the primary motivator for voter turnout. This shift has forced Republicans to recalibrate their messaging, with some candidates emphasizing economic relief while others align more closely with Trump’s hardline stances on immigration and trade.
The November 3 midterm elections will test whether late spending and Trump’s endorsement can sway voters in an environment dominated by economic anxiety and political polarization.