California voters are heading to the polls in November to elect a new governor, with the race tightening between Democratic frontrunner Xavier Becerra and Republican challenger Steve Hilton, according to new polling data. A poll commissioned by Hilton’s campaign shows him trailing Becerra by less than 6 percentage points, a narrower margin than most recent surveys. However, the poll also indicates that nearly three-fourths of undecided voters (14% of the electorate) would break for Becerra if forced to choose, suggesting a structural advantage for the Democratic candidate.
Ballots have already begun arriving in mailboxes across California ahead of the Nov. 3 election, with early voting underway. The gubernatorial race is unfolding amid broader political tensions between the state and the Trump administration on issues including environmental policy, immigration, and healthcare. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s term ends in January, setting the stage for a high-stakes transition.
Steve Hilton’s campaign strategy and rhetoric
During a town hall hosted by the Los Angeles Times and LAist, Hilton outlined his housing platform and criticized Becerra’s record, while also distancing himself from some of President Trump’s positions. Hilton acknowledged disagreements with Trump on federal funding cuts to the University of California system, threats to withdraw Customs and Border Protection agents from sanctuary states, and the federal government acquiring stakes in California-based companies. Despite Trump’s April endorsement, which helped Hilton secure the GOP nomination, Hilton’s campaign has sought to present a more moderate image in a state where Trump remains deeply unpopular.
Xavier Becerra’s campaign and family narrative
Becerra, California’s former Attorney General and a former U.S. Representative, has leaned heavily on his parents’ immigrant background in his campaign messaging. His opponent has attempted to challenge this narrative, though the specifics of Hilton’s critique were not detailed in the available reporting. Becerra’s campaign has framed his candidacy as a continuation of progressive policies in a state where Democrats hold significant majorities.
Polling context and electoral dynamics
The latest poll, conducted by APoll by David Wolfson, contrasts with broader polling averages that show Becerra leading by double digits. The discrepancy highlights the volatility of the race, though analysts note that California’s heavily Democratic electorate poses a steep challenge for Republicans. Hilton’s ability to narrow the gap has been attributed in part to his high-profile media background and Trump’s endorsement, which helped him surpass other GOP primary contenders.
The race reflects deeper divisions in California’s political landscape, where Democratic dominance has persisted despite voter dissatisfaction with the state’s direction. Polls consistently show a majority of Californians disapprove of the state’s trajectory, yet Democrats have continued to win statewide elections. The gubernatorial contest will test whether this disconnect translates into electoral consequences for the party in power.