LONDON — Britain’s domestic spy agency MI5 has warned of a major shift in Iran’s efforts to target the UK, including alleged plots against military installations, while also highlighting the growing threat of AI-enabled terrorism.
In his annual threat assessment, MI5 Director General Sir Ken McCallum stated that Iran has escalated its aggression toward the UK, including targeting harder targets such as military bases. He noted that Iran has increasingly used criminal proxies to carry out attacks, including incidents aimed at British Jewish communities and Israeli-linked sites in the UK and Europe. McCallum emphasized that these activities have led to more than 50 Iran-linked arrests in the UK over the past year alone.
Separately, McCallum warned that AI is supercharging terrorist threats, enabling potential attacks using drones and bioweapons. He cited recent cases where terrorists have sought to exploit AI for reconnaissance and attack planning, including attempts to use AI-enabled drones for operations in the UK. The spy chief also highlighted concerns about AI’s potential to facilitate the development of bioweapons, describing the risks as "real."
Thwarted plot at RAF Fairford
McCallum referenced a foiled plot targeting RAF Fairford, a UK air base used by U.S. bombers, which was disrupted in late September. While he declined to provide details due to ongoing investigations, U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham stated Monday that the incident was "almost certainly" directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). British counterterrorism police noted that the attack may have been carried out by proxies or individuals acting independently.
AI and the evolving threat landscape
In his speech, McCallum described AI as a transformative force in terrorism, enabling attackers to tailor propaganda, improve reconnaissance, and enhance attack methodologies. He warned that AI could be used to identify vulnerabilities in biosecurity research, potentially allowing terrorists or hostile states to develop lethal pathogens. MI5 has already detected cases where terrorists have attempted to use AI for drone-based attacks, drawing parallels to drone warfare tactics observed in Ukraine.
The spy chief also underscored the expanding scope of state threats, noting that MI5’s caseload related to hostile foreign governments has quadrupled over the past decade. He described the current threat environment as requiring more resources than during the Cold War, with a focus on countering both state-sponsored aggression and emerging technological risks.
Response and countermeasures
In response to the heightened threats, the U.S. moved all of its long-range bombers off RAF Fairford following the thwarted plot. British authorities have not provided further details on the nature of the alleged military site attacks or the specific countermeasures being implemented.
McCallum’s remarks follow a series of arson and sabotage incidents targeting Jewish communities and other sites across the UK and Europe, which he described as "sickening acts." He expressed solidarity with British Jewish communities, acknowledging the impact of the alleged Iranian-backed activities.
Broader implications
The warnings come amid escalating tensions between Iran and Western nations, with recent incidents including cyberattacks, sabotage operations, and alleged plots against dissidents and opposition figures. Analysts note that the use of proxies and criminal networks complicates attribution, making it difficult to directly link all incidents to the Iranian regime.
MI5 has not provided additional specifics on the alleged military site plots or the current status of investigations into the thwarted RAF Fairford attack.