The Cook Political Report updated its House race ratings on Oct. 16, shifting 11 districts toward Democrats in a move that underscores growing competitiveness in traditionally Republican-leaning areas. The adjustments come less than three weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, with Republicans still favored in eight of the 11 races.
Eight races moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, while three others shifted from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. The changes reflect what the report described as increased voter frustration in Midwestern red states over economic policies at both the federal and state levels. The report also noted that several districts President Donald Trump carried by 10 points or more in 2024 are now considered competitive.
Key Races and Shifts
- Montana’s First Congressional District moved from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, where Democrat Sam Forstag, a former smokejumper, leads Republican Aaron Flint, an Army veteran and radio host. Trump won the district by 12 points in 2024, but recent private polls cited by Cook show Forstag ahead. The House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, has aired TV ads linking Flint to data centers.
- Florida’s 25th District shifted from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat, where Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) holds an edge over former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer (R). Republicans have spent $14 million in the district since Labor Day, according to AdImpact spending figures. Trump won the redrawn district by nine points in 2024, while Biden carried it by five points in 2020.
- Ohio’s 10th District remains a Toss-Up, with Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) and Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, an Air Force veteran, running neck-and-neck. Trump won the district by eight points in 2024.
Broader Trends and Implications
The Cook Political Report’s latest ratings follow an earlier adjustment in late September, when it shifted 18 additional House races toward Democrats. The forecaster had previously predicted that Democrats would reclaim a majority in the lower chamber this year. The latest changes suggest that previously safe Republican seats are now more competitive, particularly in the Midwest.
The report attributed the shifts to economic dissatisfaction among voters, noting that competitive Senate races in the same states may also be influencing House race dynamics. While Republicans remain favored in most of the updated districts, the adjustments signal a narrowing of the GOP’s advantage in key battlegrounds.