President Donald Trump has committed to campaigning for Republican candidates in the final weeks before the midterms, but his travel schedule and the messaging in GOP ads reveal a strategic shift away from competitive districts. Trump has campaigned with fewer than a third of the 35 candidates he pledged to support, instead prioritizing deep-red states like Ohio, Texas, and Tennessee—areas he won decisively in 2022. Meanwhile, Republican candidates are largely avoiding association with Trump in their advertising, spending just $8 million on ads mentioning him, compared to $145 million spent by Democrats on Trump-related ads, according to AdImpact data.
GOP candidates distance themselves from Trump in ads
Republican Senate and House candidates in competitive races have minimized references to Trump in their campaign messaging, despite his active role on the trail. In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan aired an ad highlighting his vote to force the DOJ to release the Epstein files, a move framed as a break from Trump’s administration. In Nebraska and Ohio, candidates who previously featured Trump’s endorsements in 2022 have omitted such references this cycle. The shift reflects broader concerns about Trump’s national unpopularity and the need to appeal to swing voters in tight races.
Trump’s campaign strategy prioritizes red states over swing districts
Trump’s travel itinerary since early September has focused on Republican strongholds, including multiple stops in Ohio, Texas, and Oklahoma, as well as a recent trip to Alaska. While Trump has framed these visits as gratitude for past support, the strategy also underscores the challenges of boosting turnout in reliably red areas where Republican enthusiasm has waned. His campaign events have drawn large crowds, but the locations suggest a calculation that his presence is less critical in swing districts where his polarizing brand could alienate undecided voters.
Data shows stark contrast in ad spending on Trump
A POLITICO analysis of AdImpact data reveals a dramatic decline in GOP ad spending mentioning Trump compared to 2022. That year, Republicans spent $62 million on Trump-related ads, while Democrats spent $145 million this cycle. The disparity highlights a strategic divergence: GOP candidates are leveraging Trump’s rallies for base mobilization but avoiding direct ties in paid messaging. GOP strategist Ron Bonjean noted that while Trump’s rallies can energize the MAGA base, candidates must avoid overemphasizing his role to prevent alienating broader electorates.
Key races reflect the trend
In Ohio, Sen. Bernie Moreno, who previously featured Trump’s endorsement in 2022, has not emphasized the president’s support in his current campaign. Similarly, Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska, who won reelection in 2022 with Trump’s backing, has not highlighted his endorsement in her messaging this year. The pattern extends to House races, where candidates in swing districts are prioritizing local issues over national figures like Trump.
Context: Trump’s role in midterms past and present
Trump’s midterm strategy contrasts with his approach in 2022, when he campaigned aggressively in competitive districts and candidates widely touted his endorsements. This year, his rallies serve a dual purpose: mobilizing the base while avoiding direct associations that could harm GOP candidates in purple areas. The shift also reflects internal GOP divisions, with some candidates breaking from Trump on issues like tariffs and foreign policy, further complicating efforts to unify the party’s messaging.