A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday shows Democrats leading Republicans by 12 points in the generic congressional ballot, the widest margin of the 2024 election cycle. The survey, conducted over four days and ending Monday, found 47% of registered voters would support Democratic candidates, compared to 35% for Republicans. President Donald Trump’s approval rating also fell to a record low of 31%, down one point from two weeks prior.
The poll, which did not specify individual races, highlights shifting voter sentiment ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Women voters favored Democrats by 18 points, with 50% supporting Democratic candidates versus 32% for Republicans. Men also leaned Democratic but by a smaller margin. The survey follows a previous Reuters/Ipsos poll two weeks earlier, which showed Democrats leading by 7 points.
The generic ballot question asks voters which party they would support in congressional elections if held today. While these polls provide a national snapshot, they do not account for state-by-state or district-by-state dynamics that determine control of the Senate and House. Republicans currently hold structural advantages in key races, including some Senate seats where incumbents face competitive re-election battles.
A separate analysis by Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights noted that Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points on the question of which party voters trust more to handle the most important issue in the election year. This marks a reversal from recent years, where Republicans held advantages in 2022 and 2023. Ruffini’s indicator has a near 80-year track record of predicting electoral outcomes.
Gallup polling similarly found 44% of respondents trust Democrats more on key issues, compared to 33% for Republicans, with 23% seeing little difference or favoring another party. Democrats also hold a 14-point advantage on which party is better at maintaining national prosperity, a margin not seen since 2007.
The shifting voter trust reflects broader concerns about economic conditions, including high gasoline prices, which have contributed to Trump’s declining approval. The president’s popularity has also been impacted by military actions, such as the February strikes on Iran alongside Israel, which sparked public debate over foreign policy and its domestic economic effects.