The Maine Senate race between Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is tied at 49% apiece among likely voters, according to a Fox News poll conducted after their Oct. 15 debate. The survey reflects a highly competitive contest in a state where President Donald Trump lost by 7 points in 2024—a margin Collins overcame by nearly 9 points in her 2020 re-election bid. Democrats view the seat as critical to their Senate majority ambitions, with 53% of Maine voters preferring a Democratic-led Senate compared to 45% favoring Republican control.
Economic concerns and trade policy dominate the race, with 90% of likely voters rating Maine’s economy as “fair” or “poor” in a Suffolk University poll this month. Mark Brooks, a third-generation lobster-trap manufacturer in Maine, described the current business climate as the worst in 40 years, citing 20% price hikes from domestic suppliers, rising diesel costs due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, and 50% tariffs from Canada on U.S. lobster traps. Brooks’ company, Brooks Trap Mill, has seen $2 million in annual shipments to Canada vanish overnight following retaliatory tariffs. Maine exports over 40% of its goods to Canada, making the state particularly vulnerable to trade disputes.
Voter sentiment reflects broader dissatisfaction with the economy and federal leadership. Only 12% of Maine voters say their family is better off financially compared to two years ago, while more than 6 in 10 disapprove of Trump’s job performance, including 2 in 10 Republicans. In the Fox News poll, 53% of voters expressed concern that Collins votes too closely with Trump, while 46% worry Jackson is too liberal. Among Democrats, 79% say they are “extremely interested” in the election, compared to 61% of Republicans, contributing to Jackson’s 16-point lead among highly engaged voters. Jackson also holds a 4-point advantage among those “certain” to vote and leads by 40 points among early voters.
Key demographics and turnout dynamics further complicate the race. A slim majority of voters plan to cast ballots on Election Day, where Collins holds a slight edge. Early voting favors Jackson, who leads by a decisive margin in that group. The race’s outcome may hinge on undecided voters and turnout patterns, with Collins seeking to overcome energy on the left while Jackson aims to solidify support among economic populists. Both campaigns are emphasizing pocketbook issues, with trade policy and affordability emerging as central themes in a state where home heating oil costs—a major expense for Mainers—have surged alongside broader inflation pressures.