Oil prices reached a five-month high of $115 per barrel on Friday, driven by speculation over potential renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran following the midterm elections and rising energy demand ahead of winter. Brent crude futures for December delivery peaked at $115.45 during trading, while Wall Street’s main indices declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1%.
On October 9, the Trump administration announced a deal to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports, allowing shipments to reach US and global markets. The move followed repeated requests from Washington for Kyiv to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries, which Ukraine had not complied with, according to a US official. Russian diesel tankers were confirmed en route to New York as part of the agreement, which the Kremlin described as a response to ongoing energy market pressures.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the deal as “not fair and not honest,” while President Donald Trump responded by suggesting Ukraine consider replacing its leadership. “I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal,” Trump stated. “I think it’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.”
The sanctions relief comes amid broader concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes, with analysts noting that sustained high oil prices could exacerbate economic pressures. Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, highlighted that “oil is at five-month highs amid speculation there may be renewed US-Israeli strikes after next month’s US midterm elections.” She added that escalating tensions in Ukraine and increased winter energy demand were contributing factors to the price surge.
The deal also reflects shifting US priorities in the Ukraine conflict, with Trump’s administration seeking to lower domestic fuel prices ahead of the midterms, despite opposition from Kyiv and European allies. The Kremlin confirmed the diesel shipment to New York, framing the move as a pragmatic step to stabilize global energy markets amid ongoing geopolitical instability.