With less than two weeks until the U.S. midterm elections, polling data indicates that 78% of Americans attribute rising prices to President Donald Trump’s policies, including the recent war in Iran and sweeping tariffs. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted earlier this month, reflects growing voter discontent over economic pressures, which have become a central issue in the campaign.
Trump’s economic record faces scrutiny as Republicans omit affirmative defense. Despite voters ranking the cost of living as their top concern, the GOP has not made a strong case for Trump’s economic performance. Critics note that while gas prices have been influenced by the Iran conflict, tariffs implemented last year have also contributed to sustained high prices for goods, according to estimates from the New York Fed.
Iran war fuels voter concerns over affordability. Since Trump ordered U.S. forces to join Israel in bombing Iran earlier this year, polling shows declining public support for the war, the president, and his party. A survey of 45 prospective voters across five states revealed that many—regardless of political affiliation—linked the conflict to higher pump prices and broader economic struggles. Some Trump supporters expressed hope for a swift resolution to the war, while others signaled growing divisions within the Republican base.
Democrats tie foreign policy to economic messaging. Democratic candidates have criticized Republican opponents over America’s involvement in the Middle East, directly connecting the war to rising costs. Political strategist Mally Smith stated, “A lot of times with economic policies, it’s hard to show cause and effect. But this is an easy one to show.”
GOP’s midterm prospects hinge on economic perception. Foreign policy has rarely decided U.S. midterm elections, but Trump’s approach—particularly the war in Iran and tariffs—has turned it into a pocketbook issue. Analysts compare the current climate to 2006, when President George W. Bush’s unpopular Iraq war contributed to Republican losses in both chambers of Congress. With voters feeling the direct impact of high gas prices and grocery bills, the midterms may serve as a referendum on Trump’s handling of both domestic and international economic pressures.
Key developments in the final stretch:
- 78% of Americans blame Trump’s policies for rising prices, per Reuters/Ipsos polling.
- The Iran war has drawn criticism for its role in increasing fuel costs.
- Tariffs implemented last year are cited by economists as a factor in sustained high prices.
- Republican redistricting gains may bolster their House chances, but Democrats are favored to take the majority.
- Democratic candidates are leveraging the war’s economic impact in campaign messaging.