BROWNSVILLE, Texas — The Texas U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains tied at 49% among likely voters in a Fox News poll released Wednesday. Hispanic voters currently favor Talarico 64%-34%, according to the same survey, while backing Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump by 1 point in 2024 after favoring Democrat Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020.
Both campaigns are intensifying efforts to sway undecided voters, with Latino voters and religious coalitions emerging as critical focal points. Paxton, the state’s attorney general since 2015, faces a competitive challenge from Talarico, a state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races.
Latino voters could determine outcome
A Fox News poll released Wednesday showed Paxton and Talarico tied at 49% among likely voters, with Hispanic voters breaking sharply toward Talarico 64%-34%. The same bloc backed President Donald Trump by 1 point in 2024, a shift from its 25-point preference for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, according to the Texas Fox News Voter Analysis.
The race’s competitiveness has drawn attention to Latino voter preferences, which could prove decisive in a state where margins in past elections have been narrow. Both campaigns have ramped up outreach, with Paxton emphasizing his conservative record on immigration and religious liberty, while Talarico highlights his progressive stances on education and healthcare.
Faith coalitions take center stage
The candidates have framed their campaigns around competing visions of Christianity, each assembling faith-based coalitions to mobilize religious voters. Paxton’s "Pastors for Paxton" initiative includes 27 faith leaders, primarily from evangelical, charismatic, and nondenominational churches. Talarico’s "Faithful Texans for Talarico" coalition spans Christian, Jewish, Muslim, and other religious groups, reflecting a broader interfaith appeal.
The divergence in faith-based outreach underscores a broader debate over whose interpretation of Christianity aligns with Texas voters. Analysts note that the race’s outcome could hinge on which candidate’s religious messaging resonates more broadly. "What I find most interesting is that Christianity itself has become something the candidates are contesting," said Sam Martin, the Frank and Bethine Church Endowed Chair of Public Affairs at Boise State University.
Paxton’s legal and political controversies
Paxton’s campaign has unfolded amid significant legal and political challenges. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on allegations of corruption and abuse of office, though he was acquitted by the state Senate. His tenure as attorney general has been marked by high-profile legal battles, including challenges to federal immigration policies, abortion laws, and election procedures.
His personal life has also drawn scrutiny, including his estranged wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, who has not publicly endorsed his Senate bid. Despite these controversies, Paxton has maintained a strong base among conservative voters, positioning himself as a defender of religious liberty and conservative legal principles.
Talarico’s progressive platform
Talarico, a state representative from Round Rock, has positioned himself as a progressive alternative to Paxton, emphasizing issues such as education funding, healthcare access, and voting rights. His faith-based coalition reflects a broader appeal to religious voters beyond traditional Christian demographics, including Jewish and Muslim communities.
The race’s outcome could have national implications, as control of the U.S. Senate may hinge on tight contests in key states. Both campaigns have framed the election as a referendum on the future direction of Texas, with Paxton advocating for conservative policies and Talarico pushing for progressive reforms.