Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, in a tightly contested election that could determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retains power or faces political oblivion. The vote, the first since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks that killed 1,195 people and triggered a regional war, is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership and handling of the crisis.
Polls indicate no single party will secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, meaning the outcome will hinge on coalition negotiations. Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party is locked in a dead heat with the centrist Yashar Party, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in combat. The race has narrowed significantly in recent weeks, with both blocs falling short of the 61-seat threshold needed to govern independently.
Key developments in the final stretch
Israeli expatriates, including tens of thousands from the U.S., Europe, and Australia, have returned to cast ballots, with organizers describing the turnout as critical. Anat Dror, an Israeli-Australian voter, told ABC News she traveled at great personal cost to vote against Netanyahu, stating, “This is our motherland and our motherland needs us right now.”
Security and conscription disputes have dominated the campaign. Netanyahu’s coalition, which includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, has faced internal strife over Gaza ceasefire terms and the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men. Eisenkot’s Yashar Party has positioned itself as an alternative, arguing that Netanyahu’s leadership has failed to translate military victories into diplomatic progress.
What’s at stake beyond politics
The election carries implications for Israel’s regional standing, with ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and against Iran-backed groups. The International Criminal Court’s investigation into alleged war crimes in Gaza, which Netanyahu denies, and his ongoing corruption trials in Israel have added urgency to the vote. Meanwhile, global opinion of Israel has plummeted, with a Pew Research poll showing a median of 67% of adults across 36 countries holding an unfavorable view of the country.
Despite this, foreign policy concerns rank low among voters, according to analysts. Yaakov Katz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that domestic issues like security and the economy are prioritized over international perceptions.
How Israel’s election system works
Israelis vote for parties, not directly for a prime minister, with seats allocated via proportional representation. Parties must surpass a 3.25% threshold to enter the Knesset. Historically, governments are formed through coalitions, often requiring smaller parties to bridge divides. If no bloc secures 61 seats, a minority government or another election could follow.
Netanyahu, who has led Israel for 19 of the past 30 years, has framed the election as a choice between security and chaos. His opponents accuse him of evading accountability for the intelligence failures preceding the October 7 attacks and mismanaging the subsequent military response. Eisenkot has criticized Netanyahu’s approach as one of “eternal war,” arguing it offers no path to lasting peace.
The final stretch: Polls and predictions
Pre-election polls, conducted under legal restrictions, show a statistical deadlock, with both Netanyahu’s bloc and Eisenkot’s coalition falling short of a majority. Analysts note that smaller parties, including those representing Arab citizens, could play a decisive role, though most Jewish parties have ruled out alliances with them. Arab parties, representing over 20% of Israel’s population, have rarely joined governing coalitions.
Liran Harsgor, an electoral behavior expert from the University of Haifa, told Newsweek that the election represents “the first opportunity since 2023 to really express, other than through protests, what citizens feel about the government.” She added, “Everyone feels that this is a very crucial moment.”
As voting begins, the world will be watching to see whether Netanyahu’s political resilience holds—or if Israelis will chart a new course amid the region’s most volatile period in decades.