Republicans have spent millions of dollars defending congressional districts they redrew to favor their party ahead of the midterms, but many of those seats are now considered toss-ups despite the partisan advantages built into their maps. The shift comes as national polling shows Democrats leading on the generic ballot and President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined in recent weeks.
Two key developments define the current landscape: First, Republican-controlled states redrew at least five congressional districts—including in Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas—to create safer GOP seats ahead of the 2024 elections. Second, independent election forecasters now rate several of these newly redrawn districts as competitive, with some shifting toward Democrats in recent ratings.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analysis group, has downgraded multiple races in these redrawn districts from “likely Republican” to “competitive” or “toss-up” in its latest ratings. Among the most notable shifts is North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, which was redrawn to favor Republicans by an 11-point Trump margin in 2024 but is now rated a toss-up. Similarly, Texas’s 28th District, which Trump won by 13 points under new lines, is now considered a competitive race.
Republican strategy and spending
Republican leaders, including former President Donald Trump, had pushed for aggressive redistricting in key states to create a firewall against expected midterm losses. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has since poured millions into defending these seats, but internal forecasts suggest the party may fall short of its goals. Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, noted that the strategy “just has not turned out that way,” as Republicans face unexpected challenges in mobilizing voters in districts they assumed would be safe.
At a recent rally in North Carolina, Trump urged supporters to back Republican candidates in two toss-up races, including Laurie Buckhout, the GOP nominee in NC-01. Buckhout, a retired Army colonel, framed the race as a turnout battle, stating, “There are more of us. All you’ve got to do is get out the vote.” Despite the party’s investment, concerns persist about lower-than-expected Republican enthusiasm in these districts.
Democratic response and polling shifts
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has seized on the GOP’s struggles, arguing that Republicans are facing backlash for economic policies and redistricting efforts perceived as unfair. Bridget Gonzalez, a DCCC spokesperson, stated in a press release, “House Republicans thought they could ruin the economy, raise the cost of everything, and then rig the maps to save their seats. They’re going to get crushed in November and they have only themselves to blame.”
National polling has reinforced Democratic optimism. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling aggregate, Democrats hold an 8.3-point lead on the generic congressional ballot as of the latest data. The Cook Political Report has also shifted multiple races toward Democrats, signaling a potential shift in the House majority.
State-by-state breakdown of redrawn districts
- North Carolina’s 1st District: Redrawn to favor Republicans by an 11-point Trump margin but now a toss-up.
- Texas’s 28th District: Trump won by 13 points under new lines but is now competitive.
- Ohio’s 1st and 9th Districts: Previously competitive or Democratic-leaning, now redrawn to favor Republicans but rated as competitive by forecasters.
- Florida’s 15th and 28th Districts: Redrawn to favor Republicans but now considered battlegrounds.
- Alabama’s 2nd District: Redrawn to favor Republicans but now a competitive race.
Long-term implications
The unexpected competitiveness of these redrawn districts raises questions about the effectiveness of partisan gerrymandering in an era of shifting voter preferences. Analysts note that declining Trump approval ratings and economic concerns may be outweighing the structural advantages built into the maps. The outcome of these races could determine whether Republicans retain their House majority or if Democrats gain control in November.