TEXAS — President Donald Trump will campaign in Texas Tuesday as the state’s closely watched U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains locked in a statistical tie one week before Election Day.
Trump’s Texas campaign stops follow record early voting and polling deadlock. Trump is scheduled to hold events in Corpus Christi and Lubbock alongside Paxton, the state’s attorney general, as early voting surpasses 4.5 million ballots statewide. A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows Paxton and Talarico tied at 49% among likely voters, while five other recent public polls place Talarico ahead by margins within the margin of error. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988.
Early turnout reaches nearly 24% of registered voters. As of October 26, Texas had recorded 4,538,667 early votes, representing nearly 24% of the state’s 19 million registered voters. Harris County, the state’s most populous, reported 624,646 early ballots, followed by Dallas (371,806) and Tarrant (337,084) counties. Political analysts note that close races typically drive higher turnout, with University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss stating that perceived competitiveness motivates both voter engagement and mobilization efforts.
Polling shifts and third-party impact. Recent surveys show Talarico holding narrow leads in most public polls, though all margins fall within the margin of error. An Emerson College/Nexstar poll of 1,000 likely voters found Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 46%, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown at 3%. The Emerson poll noted Talarico’s support has increased by about one percentage point per month since August. The Fox News poll, which showed a 49%-49% tie, included undecided voters pushed to choose, resulting in a 49%-48% split favoring Talarico.
Rallygoers cite multiple motivations for supporting Paxton. At recent Paxton rallies, some attendees told reporters their primary reasons for attending included opposition to Talarico or support for Senator Ted Cruz, who has campaigned alongside Paxton. Trump’s visits to Texas mark his fourth trip to the state since Labor Day, including stops in Dallas, Denton, and San Antonio. The president’s campaign events coincide with a Senate race that could determine whether Republicans maintain their slim Senate majority.
Race significance and historical context. The contest between Paxton, a three-term attorney general who defeated Senator John Cornyn in a contentious GOP primary, and Talarico, a former public school teacher and state lawmaker, is viewed as pivotal for both parties. A Talarico victory would break Democrats’ 36-year streak without a statewide Senate win in Texas, a state Trump carried by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024. Analysts note that the race’s competitiveness has drawn national attention and resources, with both sides mobilizing voters ahead of Election Day on November 5.