A new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday shows Democrats holding a 9-point lead over Republicans in the national generic ballot for Congress, down from an 11-point gap two weeks prior. The five-day nationwide survey found 50% of registered voters would back Democrats if elections were held today, compared to 41% for Republicans, with 9% undecided. The poll was conducted October 22-26, ahead of the November 3 midterm elections that will determine control of the U.S. House and Senate.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating rose slightly to 32%, up one percentage point from the previous week’s record low. The poll also indicated a shift in voter sentiment on economic management, with 37% of respondents favoring Democrats’ approach compared to 33% for Republicans—a reversal from earlier surveys where Republicans held an advantage on the issue.
Part 1: Immediate Action & Core Facts
Democratic Advantage Narrows Slightly
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Democrats maintaining a lead in the generic ballot question, which asks voters which party they would support for Congress without naming specific candidates. When undecided voters’ leanings are included, the Democratic margin shrinks from 11 points to 9 points. This represents a 1-point decline in the Democratic lead compared to the October 19 poll.
Trump Approval Ticks Up from Record Low
President Trump’s approval rating increased to 32%, marking a modest recovery after hitting a low of 31% the prior week. The poll did not provide additional context for the uptick, though it follows a week of campaign rallies in Mississippi and other states.
Part 2: Deeper Dive & Context
House vs. Senate: Diverging Paths to Control
Political analysts widely expect Democrats to gain seats in the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a majority. Generic ballot polls, which reflect national sentiment, are seen as strong predictors of House outcomes. However, the Senate race remains highly competitive, with Democrats needing to flip several seats in states Trump won by large margins in 2024. Republicans hold structural advantages in Senate contests, including favorable state-by-state maps and incumbency in key races.
Voter Enthusiasm and Key Issues
Democratic voters reported higher enthusiasm for the midterms, with 46% of Democrats saying they were very enthusiastic about voting compared to 30% of Republicans. The cost of living emerged as a top concern, with 33% of respondents saying they had experienced financial hardship in the past year and 40% reporting worsening personal finances. Preserving democracy was a priority for Democrats and independents, while immigration remained the biggest concern for self-described MAGA supporters.
Economic Perceptions Shift
The poll found a 4-point swing in favor of Democrats on economic management, with 37% of voters preferring their approach compared to 33% for Republicans. This marks a reversal from earlier surveys, where Republicans held a consistent advantage on the economy. The change coincides with rising concerns about inflation and household expenses.
Structural Factors in Senate Races
While generic ballot polls provide a national snapshot, Senate control is determined by individual state races. Republicans benefit from incumbency in several battleground states and a map that favors their party in 2026. Democrats have narrowed the playing field in races they previously considered out of reach, but analysts caution that a Republican turnout advantage could limit Democratic gains.
Polling Methodology
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,004 registered voters between October 22-26. The margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The poll included both decided voters and those leaning toward a party, with undecided respondents asked to indicate their likely choice.