Republicans are scrambling to defend seats in deep-red states just one week before the midterm elections, as President Donald Trump’s approval rating drops to 32% and economic frustrations intensify. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 22-26 found 66% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s performance, while Democrats lead Republicans 53 to 44% on the generic congressional ballot.
Senate Republicans in Mississippi and Kansas are facing unexpectedly competitive races from Democratic opponents, despite Trump winning Mississippi by 23 percentage points in 2024. In Mississippi, Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith leads Democrat Scott Colom by just three points (43% to 40%) in a Change Research poll of 842 likely voters conducted October 21-22. Meanwhile, Republican House incumbents in Colorado and Minnesota are also battling well-funded Democratic challengers, forcing GOP candidates to campaign aggressively in races they had previously considered safe.
Economic Concerns Drive Voter Sentiment
A majority of voters cite the cost of living as moving in the wrong direction, with 73% of respondents in the Reuters/Ipsos poll expressing dissatisfaction. High energy costs, exacerbated by Trump’s decision to escalate military action in Iran, have become a central issue for voters like Noor Dubow, a Republican-leaning Ohio voter who cited the war as his primary reason for breaking from his usual party support. “Where are the Republicans in Congress?” Dubow asked. “Why aren’t they holding Trump accountable?”
Republican strategists privately acknowledge that the Iran war has severely damaged the party’s push to retain control of Congress, as surging gasoline prices drive up costs across nearly every sector. Trump has described the conflict as a “little detour,” but the economic fallout has overshadowed his administration’s messaging on other issues.
Historical Parallels and Midterm Implications
Political analysts note parallels between Trump’s current struggles and George W. Bush’s second-term midterm performance in 2006, when Bush’s approval rating stood at 37% in a USA Today/Gallup poll. Bush’s party lost control of both chambers of Congress that November. A Reuters/Ipsos survey from October 22-26 places Trump’s approval at 32%, with 66% disapproving—a figure that has raised questions about whether history could repeat itself.
The generic congressional ballot further underscores Republican vulnerabilities, with Democrats holding a 9-point lead (53% to 44%) among likely voters. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll published October 27 found that 44% of likely voters described their congressional choice primarily as a vote against Trump, while 21% framed it as a vote in his favor.
Key Races Reflect Broader GOP Struggles
In Mississippi, Hyde-Smith’s campaign has been dogged by missteps, including comments about rising grocery prices that her opponent turned into a viral attack ad. Despite raising over $6 million, her lead over Colom has narrowed to just three points in recent polling.
In Kansas, Republican Senator Jerry Moran faces a competitive race against Democrat Mike Andra, with polls showing a tight contest. Moran, who has raised $5.2 million, has struggled to distance himself from Trump’s unpopularity in a state Trump won by 15 points in 2024.
Meanwhile, House Republicans in Colorado and Minnesota are defending seats in districts Trump narrowly lost in 2024. In Colorado’s 3rd District, Republican Representative Lauren Boebert faces a well-funded challenge from Democrat Adam Frisch, while in Minnesota’s 2nd District, Republican Representative Angie Craig is locked in a tight race against challenger Tyler Kistner.
Campaign Strategies and Voter Turnout
GOP incumbents in competitive races have ramped up campaign efforts, emphasizing local issues such as inflation and healthcare while downplaying Trump’s role in the party’s messaging. However, the president’s continued presence on the campaign trail has drawn protests and counter-rallies, further energizing Democratic turnout efforts.
Early voting data suggests high engagement, with over 20 million Americans casting ballots ahead of Election Day. Political analysts caution that the final outcome may hinge on turnout in key battleground states, where economic dissatisfaction and foreign policy concerns have overshadowed traditional partisan divides.