Voters heading into the midterm elections are prioritizing cost-of-living pressures, with inflation, housing affordability, and energy costs emerging as decisive factors in their decisions. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center found that 66% of U.S. adults—including 76% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans—are very concerned about rising housing costs. Meanwhile, the annual U.S. inflation rate remains above 3%, driven in part by disruptions in global energy markets following the outbreak of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2024.
Key Developments
- Inflation remains persistently high, with the annual rate hovering above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, fueled by energy price volatility linked to geopolitical tensions.
- Housing affordability has worsened, with the median price of an existing home reaching $417,500 in September 2024—nearly 54% higher than in September 2019, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Economic Pressures Shape Midterm Priorities
Economic sentiment is a central issue in the midterm elections, with affordability concerns dominating voter priorities. William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, described affordability as "the central issue in the forthcoming midterm elections." A CNBC All-America Economic Survey conducted in mid-October 2024 found that most Americans hold a pessimistic outlook on the economy, with rising costs of gas, groceries, and childcare weighing heavily on household finances.
Housing Affordability Crisis Deepens
The housing market has become a bipartisan concern, with high home prices and borrowing costs pricing out many prospective buyers. The median price of an existing home was $417,500 in September 2024, up 1.3% from a year earlier but significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Renters also face challenges, with 22.7 million renter households spending a substantial share of their income on housing in 2024. The Pew Research Center survey highlighted that 66% of U.S. adults are very concerned about housing costs, underscoring the issue’s broad impact across political lines.
Energy Costs and Inflation Trends
Inflation has remained a persistent challenge, with the annual rate exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for much of 2024. The outbreak of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2024 disrupted global energy supply chains, driving up energy prices and contributing to persistent inflation. Before the conflict, headline consumer inflation had been gradually approaching the Federal Reserve’s target, but the war’s impact has kept inflation above 3% annually for nearly nine months.
Political Blame and Policy Responses
Both major political parties have framed the economic challenges through the lens of their opponents’ policies. Democrats have pointed to Republican-backed tariffs and Donald Trump’s energy policies as contributors to high gas prices and broader inflation. Republicans, in turn, have blamed President Joe Biden’s 2021 executive actions, including the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline permit and a pause on new oil and gas leases on federal lands, for exacerbating energy price volatility.
Inflation Under Biden and Trump
Under President Biden, annual inflation peaked at a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, a figure that became a major vulnerability for his economic record. When Biden took office in January 2021, the annual inflation rate was 1.4%. Critics, including congressional Republicans, attributed the rise in prices across sectors—from gas stations to grocery stores—to Biden’s energy policies. Meanwhile, Trump has campaigned on restoring affordability, though his administration faced energy price challenges linked to geopolitical conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East.
Voter Sentiment and Election Impact
Economic concerns are shaping voter priorities as the midterm elections approach. Polling indicates that affordability issues are the top concern for voters, with housing costs, inflation, and energy prices driving dissatisfaction. The CNBC survey found that most Americans view the economy pessimistically, reinforcing the importance of cost-of-living issues in the electoral landscape.